This edition: I’m The One | Water To Wine | Point Of Law | Portcullis | Weheedd | Ya Karim | Bay Royale | Infraad | You Got To My Soul | Alderman
John & Thady Gosden — Four Horses To Follow
A strong ten days from the Gosden stable. Four horses across four different races — including I’m The One, the new Oaks favourite, a Wood Ditton winner, a Yarmouth debutant and a highly impressive maiden winner at Newbury. All lightly raced. All with significant untapped potential.
One number worth keeping in mind across all four profiles. From StridePredictor’s historical analysis of the Gosden horse population — 78% improve from debut to second start, with an average step forward of 7.96lbs.
None of these four have shown their ceiling.
I’m The One — Predicted Optimal 10.7f
| Run | Course | Predicted Distance |
|---|---|---|
| 17 Apr 2026 | Newbury | 10.7f |
The new Oaks favourite. An impressive debut winner at Newbury — I’m The One shot to the head of the market on the back of this performance, as short as 7/2 in places.
A note on race pace before reading too much into the stride data. The first four furlongs were 2.44 seconds slower than the novice won by Maltese Cross earlier on the same card — from there the sectionals were broadly on a par. The prediction carries a moderate pace confidence warning.
10.7f — one run, moderate confidence. A good starting point for a filly who might be most effective at 12 furlongs in time. It is not screaming 12f, but it is not against it either. More evidence needed.
Nothing against the horse or the performance. The opposition is from a betting angle. At 7/2 that is very short for a filly unproven at the level of form required and unproven at the distance. Everything has a price — for me that is too short. She is an exciting prospect, but there are others in the Oaks market who currently appeal more.
Water To Wine — Predicted Optimal 12.2f
| Run | Course | Predicted Distance |
|---|---|---|
| 18 Apr 2026 | Newbury | 12.2f |
A striking debut — beating three Derby entries in convincing fashion, albeit all three with limited form to their name.
John Gosden post-race suggested Epsom is unlikely. A big horse they will take their time with — the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot sounds the more likely short term target.
He strides like a 12 furlong horse. One run, clear signal. An interesting prospect for the season and beyond in middle distance races.
Point Of Law — Predicted Optimal 11.7f
| Run | Course | Predicted Distance |
|---|---|---|
| 11 Apr 2026 | Yarmouth | 11.7f |
A decent debut in a competitive 5-runner novice. Winner Del Maro was Group 3 placed behind Pierre Bonnard as a 2yo — pushing him hard and putting 3½ lengths back to the third was an encouraging first run.
One run, one signal. Debuted over 10 furlongs — the stride data points to 12 furlongs being where he will be most effective.
Portcullis — Predicted Optimal 8.5f
| Run | Course | Predicted Distance |
|---|---|---|
| 16 Apr 2026 | Newmarket | 8.5f |
Impressive in winning the Wood Ditton. Well noted post-race — he will be in most notebooks and unlikely to offer much value in his next few runs.
He was slowly away. Gauging the merit of beating a field of unraced horses is difficult. What can be expected is improvement with experience — consistent with the typical Gosden horse from debut.
8.5f — limited evidence at this stage, but a starting point. Expect to see him at his best around a mile.
Four Gosden horses, four debut signals. What else caught the eye over the past ten days?
Two horses from Yarmouth caught the eye — both pointing at likely improvers with a specific trip in mind.
Weheedd — Predicted Optimal 9.7f
| Run | Course | Predicted Distance |
|---|---|---|
| 11 Apr | Yarmouth | 9.7f |
Debut at Yarmouth over a mile — not a soft introduction. Several of the field had shown fair form, the bar was reasonably high for a first start. Weheedd finished second.
The market told its own story. Sustained, heavy support right up to the off. Particularly notable given the quality of the opposition on debut.
9.7f — a step up toward 10 furlongs is where this horse will be most effective.
William Haggas horses improve with racing and experience. Weheedd on debut, competitive small field, that level of market support behind him. With normal improvement, he is potentially decent.
Ya Karim — Predicted Optimal 9.7f
| Run | Course | Predicted Distance |
|---|---|---|
| 11 Apr | Yarmouth | 9.7f |
| 13 Oct | Yarmouth | 7.6f |
| 02 Sept | Kempton | 9.2f |
Three runs in decent maidens and novices. An opening handicap mark of 83 looks fair on what he has achieved on the racecourse so far.
The London Gold Cup at Newbury in May is a race the Charlton stable have targeted in recent seasons — winning most recently in 2025 with King’s Gambit. Ya Karim looks a candidate for this year’s renewal.
Two improvement angles support that. He has yet to race beyond a mile — a predicted optimal of 9.7f points clearly to 10 furlongs suiting him. And he was gelded following the Yarmouth run — another positive in the locker.
A sneaking feeling he might just turn up at Newbury in May.
One novice race at Nottingham produced three horses worth tracking — all pointing at staying trips.
Nottingham Novice Stakes — 1m2f, 8 April 2026
| Pos | Horse | Predicted Distance |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | Bay Royale | 13.0f |
| 3rd | Infraad | 12.7f |
| 7th | You Got To My Soul | 14.2f |
A pace confidence warning applies to this race. The contest turned into a relative sprint over the final three furlongs — that lowers confidence in the predicted distances. Use them directionally. Where they verify other runs, confidence increases. Finishing positions and collateral form should be treated with caution.
Bay Royale — Predicted Optimal 12.5f
| Run | Course | Predicted Distance |
|---|---|---|
| 08 Apr 2026 | Nottingham | 13.0f |
| 26 Oct 2025 | Nottingham | 12.5f |
Two runs, both pointing in the same direction. 12f plus is where Bay Royale will be best when the emphasis is on stamina. An impressive winner here on just his second start.
The pace warning applies to this race — but the October debut returned 12.5f in a separate contest with no pace concerns. Two different races, same directional answer. That consistency is what lifts confidence despite the caveat.
The Eustace stable hold him in high regard — an Irish Derby entry is an indication of that esteem. A decent middle distance prospect worth following.
Infraad — Predicted Optimal 12.7f
| Run | Course | Predicted Distance |
|---|---|---|
| 08 Apr 2026 | Nottingham | 12.7f |
| 24 Oct 2025 | Doncaster | 12.6f |
Highlighted in the Derby Trainer Intent piece as a horse to follow in 2026. Continued his education here — a second run, again pointing at a stamina stride. He holds a Derby entry.
Two runs, same answer. 12.7f and 12.6f — the consistency across two different courses is notable. A step up to 12 furlongs is the obvious next move. When that happens, expect a significant performance upgrade. A horse of serious interest.
You Got To My Soul — Predicted Optimal 14.2f
| Run | Course | Predicted Distance |
|---|---|---|
| 08 Apr 2026 | Nottingham | 14.2f |
| 28 Feb 2026 | Southwell | 15.2f |
| 17 Jan 2026 | Southwell | 14.7f |
Previously featured in these pages — the direction has been clear from the start. Three runs, all carrying pace warnings, all pointing firmly at 14f plus staying territory.
An honest caveat. Three pace warnings across three runs means the exact distance figure carries less weight than usual. What holds up is the direction — every run, regardless of pace scenario, returns a number well above 14 furlongs. The model is consistently saying the same thing even when conditions are imperfect. That consistency matters.
He has been given an opening handicap mark of 73. Where and at what distance connections aim him next will be watched with interest.
Back to Newbury — and the race won so impressively by Water To Wine. One of the beaten horses there tells an interesting story from a distance perspective.
Alderman — Predicted Optimal 9.3f
| Run | Course | Predicted Distance |
|---|---|---|
| 18 Apr 2026 | Newbury | 9.3f |
| 03 Nov 2025 | Kempton | 8.9f |
| 29 Aug 2025 | Sandown | 8.5f |
Three runs, three consistent predictions. An Epsom Derby entry signals the regard connections hold him in — the stride data points in a different distance direction.
At Newbury over 11 furlongs he travelled strongly before being swamped by the impressive Water To Wine. Whether that was the winner’s superiority or a lack of stamina in Alderman is open to debate. Three runs of stride data consistently suggest he will be most effective around 9 furlongs.
Now handicap qualified. He is likely to be seen at his best when dropped back in trip.
Ten horses across four stables and five meetings. The common thread — unexposed horses where the stride data is already pointing at a distance direction, in many cases untested yet.
Portcullis and Water To Wine from the Gosden yard will attract the most attention. The quieter stories may prove more valuable. Ya Karim stepping up in trip at Newbury. Infraad getting 12 furlongs for the first time. Weheedd improving into a 10 furlong horse. Those are the ones to keep on the tracker.