Who is built for the Guineas mile?
The 2000 Guineas 2026 is one of the most open renewals in years — the stride data has some opinions. This page applies the StridePredictor 2yo–3yo forecast model to last season’s key trials — identifying predicted optimal 3yo distances for the market principals based on stride biomechanics from their juvenile careers.
2yo–3yo Forecast Model — trained on 238 horses, R² 79.6%
Key 2-year-old trial races
Darley Dewhurst Stakes — Group 1 — Newmarket, 11 October 2025 — 7f — Good to Firm
Pace — HIGH CONFIDENCE
| Pos | Horse | Predicted Distance |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | Gewan | 7.2f |
| 2nd | Gstaad | 8.0f |
| 3rd | Distant Storm | 7.8f |
| 4th | Zavateri | 8.0f |
| 5th | Oxagon | 7.3f |
| 6th | Alparslan | 8.4f |
| 7th | Pacific Avenue | 7.0f |
| 8th | Italy | 7.9f |
| 9th | Saba Desert | 7.2f |
Tattersalls Online Royal Lodge Stakes — Group 2 — Newmarket, 27 September 2025 — 1m — Good to Firm
Pace — HIGH CONFIDENCE
| Pos | Horse | Predicted Distance |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | Bow Echo | 8.8f |
| 2nd | Humidity | 9.7f |
| 3rd | Action | 8.2f |
| 4th | Pacific Avenue | 8.2f |
| 5th | Daytona | 8.2f |
| 6th | Tailgunner Joe | — |
| 7th | Ancient Egypt | 9.1f |
| 8th | Lord Britain | 8.4f |
Betfred Champagne Stakes — Group 2 — Doncaster, 13 September 2025 — 7f 6y — Good (Good to Soft in places)
Pace — HIGH CONFIDENCE
| Pos | Horse | Predicted Distance |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | Puerto Rico | 8.6f |
| 2nd | Oxagon | 7.8f |
| 3rd | Cape Orator | 7.9f |
| 4th | Gewan | 7.8f |
| 5th | Cape Ashizuri | 8.3f |
Tattersalls Acomb Stakes — Group 3 — York, 20 August 2025 — 7f — Good to Firm (Good in places)
Pace — MODERATE CONFIDENCE — 5 lengths slow
| Pos | Horse | Predicted Distance |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | Gewan | 8.2f |
| 2nd | Italy | 8.6f |
| 3rd | Distant Storm | 8.1f |
| 4th | Rochfortbridge | 8.3f |
| 5th | May Angel | 7.9f |
| 6th | Sovereign Ocean | 8.0f |
| 7th | Goodwood Galaxy | 8.2f |
Goffs Vincent O’Brien National Stakes — Group 1 — Curragh, 14 September 2025 — 7f — Yielding
Pace — GOOD CONFIDENCE
| Pos | Horse | Predicted Distance |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | Zavateri | 9.0f |
| 2nd | Gstaad | 9.3f |
| 3rd | Italy | 8.5f |
| 4th | Dorset | — |
| 5th | North Coast | 8.7f |
| 6th | Saba Desert | 7.8f |
Tattersalls Stakes — Group 3 — Newmarket, 25 September 2025 — 7f — Good (Good to Firm in places)
Pace — HIGH CONFIDENCE
| Pos | Horse | Predicted Distance |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | Distant Storm | 7.7f |
| 2nd | Commander’s Intent | 7.8f |
| 3rd | Archer Royal | 7.2f |
| 4th | Catullus | 7.4f |
| 5th | Northern Champion | 7.2f |
| 6th | Rogue Supremacy | 7.1f |
| 7th | Special Dividend | 7.4f |
Coral Vintage Stakes — Group 2 — Goodwood, 29 July 2025 — 7f — Good
Pace — HIGH CONFIDENCE
| Pos | Horse | Predicted Distance |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | Zavateri | 8.0f |
| 2nd | Morris Dancer | 7.1f |
| 3rd | Do Or Do Not | 7.4f |
| 4th | Goodwood Galaxy | 9.0f |
| 5th | Dorset | 7.5f |
| 6th | Andab | 8.2f |
| 7th | Humidity | 9.1f |
| 8th | Laureate Crown | 8.0f |
| 9th | Gharma Sutra | 7.6f |
| 10th | Vincenzo Peruggia | 8.7f |
2000 Guineas 2026 — Market Principals Stride Profiles
How to read these profiles
Each predicted distance is generated by the 2yo–3yo forecast model using stride biomechanics from that run. The bold entry is the predicted optimal — the distance prediction from the horse’s best performance to date, rated by time performance. Unstarred entries are high or good confidence reads.
*Moderate pace confidence — treat with some caution
** Low pace confidence — directional only
PUBLISH Predicted Optimal: 10.2f
| Date | Race | Predicted Distance |
|---|---|---|
| 06 Sept | Haydock | 11.7f ** |
| 24 July | Sandown | 10.2f |
| 04 July | Sandown | 9.2f |
BOW ECHO Predicted Optimal: 8.8f
| Date | Race | Predicted Distance |
|---|---|---|
| 27 Sept | Newmarket | 8.8f |
| 06 Sept | Haydock | 11.7f ** |
| 15 Aug | Newbury | 9.4f |
GEWAN Predicted Optimal: 7.2f
| Date | Race | Predicted Distance |
|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct | Newmarket | 7.2f |
| 13 Sept | Doncaster | 7.7f |
| 20 Aug | York | 8.2f * |
| 18 July | Newbury | 7.5f |
GSTAAD Predicted Optimal: 8.0f
| Date | Race | Predicted Distance |
|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | Del Mar | — |
| 11 Oct | Newmarket | 8.0f |
| 14 Sept | Curragh | 9.3f |
| 24 Aug | Deauville | — |
| 17 June | Ascot | 6.3f |
| 17 May | Navan | 7.0f |
PUERTO RICO Predicted Optimal: 8.5f
| Date | Race | Predicted Distance |
|---|---|---|
| 26 Oct | Saint-Cloud | — |
| 06 Oct | Longchamp | — |
| 13 Sept | Doncaster | 8.5f |
| 09 Aug | Curragh | 6.1f |
| 31 July | Goodwood | 6.3f |
| 19 July | Curragh | 6.7f |
| 27 June | Curragh | 6.5f |
| 04 June | Curragh | 6.3f |
DISTANT STORM Predicted Optimal: 7.8f
| Date | Race | Predicted Distance |
|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct | Newmarket | 7.8f |
| 25 Sept | Newmarket | 7.7f |
| 20 Aug | York | 8.1f * |
| 11 July | Newmarket | 9.2f ** |
ALBERT EINSTEIN Predicted Optimal: 6.6f
| Date | Race | Predicted Distance |
|---|---|---|
| 27 March | Curragh | 7.5f |
| 25 May | Curragh | 6.6f |
| 10 May | Naas | 6.3f |
KING’S TRAIL Predicted Optimal: 10.7f *
Caution advised — both runs carry a pace confidence warning. No high or good confidence read available. Treat predictions as directional only.
| Date | Race | Predicted Distance |
|---|---|---|
| 28 March | Kempton | 10.7f * |
| 01 Dec | Kempton | 10.2f ** |
TALK OF NEW YORK Predicted Optimal: 10.1f
| Date | Race | Predicted Distance |
|---|---|---|
| 28 Feb | Meydan | — |
| 15 Oct | Kempton | 10.1f |
Last updated: 4 April 2026.