The flat turf season is underway with the Doncaster Lincoln meeting 2026 marking the opening weekend.
Key performances through a striding lens — improvement angles, horses of interest, and a volatile Guineas market. Godolphin’s King’s Trail: Guineas or Derby? And a strong-looking 3yo maiden at Doncaster, packed with runners from the top stables and stride profiles pointing in very different distance directions.
We start on the all-weather at Newcastle on Friday night.
POWER FIZZ — Newcastle, 27 March | 4yo | 6f 1y
| Date | Track | Predicted Distance |
|---|---|---|
| 27 Mar 2026 | Newcastle | 6.1f |
Power Fizz dropped to 6f for the first time since debut, having won three times over 7f. The visual was impressive — last to first inside the final furlong and a half. Given those three wins over 7f last season and the strong finishing nature of this win, connections would be forgiven for stepping straight back up in trip.
The stride data says otherwise. 6.1f optimal on a personal best performance. This isn’t a 7f horse who got away with it at 6f. He strides like a 6f horse who’s been winning despite racing too far. Straight track, strong pace, uphill finish — a race like the Wokingham looks tailor-made.
ALBERT EINSTEIN — Curragh, 27 March | 3yo | 7f | Soft (Heavy in places)
| Date | Track | Predicted Distance |
|---|---|---|
| 27 Mar 2026 | Curragh | 7.5f |
| 25 May 2025 | Curragh | 6.6f |
| 10 May 2025 | Naas | 6.3f |
Seasonal debut over 7f, started the day as Guineas favourite, finished sixth.
The 7.5f prediction looks like a drift toward a mile trip. Don’t be misled.
The model is trained on a simple principle: a horse’s optimal distance is the distance at which it ran its best performance. Not the furthest it has managed. Not an average across all its runs. Its best.
When Albert Einstein won a Group 3 over 6f at the Curragh last May as a two-year-old, that was his best performance to date. The stride data from that run produced a predicted optimal distance of 6.6f. That is the benchmark.
Saturday was different. He ran below his best form on heavy ground over 7f. The stride data from that run produced a predicted distance of 7.5f — but this is not his optimal. It is simply what the model read from a horse moving through a below-par performance on heavy ground.
The distinction matters. 6.6f is where he ran his best. 7.5f is what Saturday’s data said. They are not competing answers. They are snapshots of the same horse taken on very different days.
The sprint profile stands. He strides like a sprinter. The Guineas trip looks beyond him. It would be good to see him back at 6f.
KEMPTON — 28 March | 3yo | 1m | Standard
| Pos | Horse | Predicted Distance |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | King’s Trail | 10.7f |
| 2nd | Conclave | 11.3f |
| 3rd | Lake Como | 13.2f |
King’s Trail – 2000 Guineas or Derby?
Neither, on the stride data. King’s Trail sits as low as 12/1 for the Guineas and 20/1 for the Derby, but two runs here at Kempton — a 10.2f prediction on debut, 10.7f on Saturday — tell a consistent story. He strides like a 10f horse. A mile looks too sharp, a mile and a half too far. Godolphin have stronger Guineas candidates in Distant Storm and Talk Of New York, and his stride profile over two runs gives little encouragement for the Derby trip. He’ll likely fall between the two Classic distances. A mile and a quarter looks his game.
Conclave predicted 12.3f on debut at Kempton on 4 March. Typical Andrew Balding horse, stepped forward from that first effort. Strides like an 11–12f horse. Needs further.
Lake Como, formerly highlighted in Stride Watch, again returned a staying profile. A mile here is short of his best. Finishing third in a Class 2 at odds of 50/1 may have blown his handicap mark and made placement trickier, but he’ll be a better horse over further.
DONCASTER — 28 March | 3yo Maiden | 1m 2f 43y | Good to Soft (Soft in places)
With an eye on the future, this looked the most interesting race on the Lincoln meeting card. Entries from top stables, three Derby entries. This form will work out.
William Hill Maiden Stakes — 1m 2f 43y — Good to Soft (Soft in places)
| Pos | Horse | Predicted Distance |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | High Storm | 10.9f |
| 2nd | Sailor Song | 8.3f |
| 3rd | Turty Tree | 13.1f |
| 4th | Super Crown | 11.4f |
| 5th | Three No Trumps | 10.8f |
| 6th | Valenday | 10.7f |
| 7th | Marasi Bay | 10.7f |
| 8th | Faeberon | 8.9f |
| 9th | Rebel Legend | — |
Sailor Song strides like this 10f is stretching him. Drop him back.
Turty Tree, who featured in the Derby Trainer Intent article, was very well supported in the market on this second start. His 2yo debut returned 12.0f, then 13.1f here. Two runs, both saying the same thing — further.
Super Crown, a William Haggas debutant and Derby entrant — the stable clearly think a lot of him, though he drifted badly in the betting all day. Typical of the stable to leave plenty to work on. Expect a significant step forward from this effort. 11.4f stride profile. He wants further, and improvement will come with it.
Worth highlighting that the first and second here — High Storm and Sailor Song — finished runner-up and fourth in a recent Southwell novice. With subsequent runs, the Southwell form is looking stronger than it did at the time. Note: that race carries a pace confidence warning. Winner Pursuit Of Love — predicted optimal 11.3f — has more to offer.
Third placed You Got To My Soul in particular catches the eye as a staying handicap project. Two runs, both carrying pace warnings so treat the precise numbers with caution, but the direction is clear — stamina.
You Got To My Soul — Race Record
| Date | Track | Predicted Distance |
|---|---|---|
| 28 Feb 2026 | Southwell | 15.2f |
| 17 Jan 2026 | Southwell | 14.7f |
SHAFTESBURY AVENUE — Navan, 30 March | 3yo | 7f 180y | Heavy
| Date | Track | Predicted Distance |
|---|---|---|
| 30 Mar 2026 | Navan | 12.5f |
| 15 Mar 2026 | Curragh | 11.6f |
Stepped forward considerably on his debut run two weeks ago. Heavy ground at Navan warrants some caution on the precise numbers, though two predictions pointing in the same direction add confidence.
A huge horse, very taking, and one who should improve with experience. Yet to race beyond a mile, both runs have returned a stride profile that says stamina. Expect him to come into his own once he gets to tackle trips where that stamina is genuinely drawn upon.
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