Stride analysis exposes the ante-post Derby market’s fundamental weakness: it prices horses on form and reputation without validating distance suitability.
The 2026 Epsom Derby market is immature. Prices are based on two-year-old form at shorter distances, not 12-furlong evidence. Many horses are racing at wrong trips—the market won’t know until they’re stretched out at 12 furlongs. That’s guesswork.
Stride analysis removes the guesswork. Biomechanical data predicts optimal distance with 75%+ accuracy. It identifies which horses will improve at Derby distance and which won’t stay the trip—before they prove it on track and before prices move.
The 1000 & 2000 Guineas markets price proven mile ability. The Derby market prices potential. That gap creates value.
The market hasn’t adjusted yet.
Who stays, who doesn’t, and where’s the value?
Understanding Prediction Confidence
Stride predictions are most accurate when races are run at efficient pace. Confidence indicators flag predictions that may be distorted:
No indicator = High confidence. Stride data from efficiently run race.
🟡 = Moderate confidence. Some pace irregularities present.
🔴 = Low confidence. Pace tactics significantly distorted stride data.
Treat flagged predictions cautiously—they require additional evidence from future runs.
NOTE: 3yo Predicted Optimal Distances are from each horse’s best performance in an efficiently run race.
Epsom Derby 2026 Predictions: Market Leaders
The front of the ante-post betting through a stride analysis lens.
| Horse | 3yo Predicted Optimal Distance |
|---|---|
| Benvenuto Cellini | 12.9f |
| Pierre Bonnard | 12.0f |
| Hawk Mountain | 9.4f |
| Action | 8.4f |
Starting with the market leaders.
Pierre Bonnard: 3yo Predicted Optimal Distance – 12.0f
The ante-post favourite. Ended his 2-year-old season with Group wins at Newmarket (Zetland Stakes) and Saint-Cloud (Criterium De Saint-Cloud), both over 10 furlongs.
The Newmarket run returned a 12.0f prediction—bang on the Derby trip. But there’s a concern.
A higher minimum stride frequency (2.21) than typically associated with Derby winners. A 3-year-old with that stride profile usually wants 10f, not 12f.
Predicted Optimal Distance (by race):
- 26 Oct Saint-Cloud → unknown
- 11 Oct Newmarket → 12.0f
- 15 Aug Dundalk → 9.1f
- 24 July Leopardstown → 10.3f
The 10f race distance inflates the prediction. The minimum stride frequency suggests Pierre Bonnard will prove best at 10f. I’m passing until he runs a Derby 2026 trial in spring.
The Futurity Stakes at Doncaster provided a direct comparison of the next three market principals. One stands apart.
Hawk Mountain: 3yo Predicted Optimal Distance – 9.4f
Predicted Optimal Distance (by race):
- 25 Oct Doncaster → 9.4f
- 27 Sept Curragh → 9.8f
- 30 Aug Curragh → 10.0f
Three runs, same message: 10f horse. Derby 2026 trip likely beyond his range.
Action: 3yo Predicted Optimal Distance – 8.4f
Predicted Optimal Distance (by race):
- 25 Oct Doncaster → 8.4f
- 27 Sept Newmarket → 8.5f
- 2 Aug Galway → 10.3f
- 19 July Curragh → 8.2f
Miler. Galway suggests 10f possible, but 12f unlikely. Guineas contender, not Derby 2026 one.
Benvenuto Cellini: 3yo Predicted Optimal Distance – 12.9f
Predicted Optimal Distance (by race):
- 25 Oct Doncaster → 12.9f
- 13 Sept Leopardstown → 12.9f
- 14 July Killarney → 13.2f 🔴
Here’s the outlier.
Benvenuto Cellini showed classic middle-distance stride mechanics—consistent across three runs. He ran Group 1 placed against faster horses as a 2-year-old while operating in the wrong energy system. Step him up in distance where he can use aerobic energy efficiently, and he improves significantly.
Aidan O’Brien noted after Doncaster the horse wants faster ground. Heavy going that day. He was sharper winning at Leopardstown on better ground.
Killarney returned a low confidence rating (🔴)—pace-distorted data—so treat that 13.2f cautiously.
Benvenuto Cellini sits fourth in the ante-post market behind three stable companions. The stride data says he has the strongest Derby 2026 credentials of anything seen so far.
Genuine Stayers: Will Handle Derby Distance
Genuine Derby distance candidates based on stride analysis.
| Horse | 3yo Predicted Optimal Distance |
|---|---|
| Wise Prince | 12.2f |
| Christmas Day | 12.1f |
| New Zealand | 12.0f |
New Zealand: 3yo Predicted Optimal Distance – 12.0f
Predicted Optimal Distance (by race):
- 26 Oct Saint-Cloud → unknown
- 11 Oct Newmarket → 12.0f
- 19 July Curragh → 10.2f
Not the most obvious candidate from the O’Brien stable. His ability looks fairly exposed—beaten in the Group 3 Autumn Stakes at Newmarket and the Group 1 Criterium International on his final two starts.
But New Zealand strides like a mile-and-a-half 3-year-old.
One to watch in the spring trials when his stamina comes into play. We should see a better horse.
Christmas Day: 3yo Predicted Optimal Distance – 12.1f
Predicted Optimal Distance (by race):
- 18 Oct Leopardstown → 12.1f
- 20 Sept Gowran Park → 12.3f 🟡
- 31 Aug Tipperary → 11.6f
- 02 Aug Galway → 12.1f
Another O’Brien horse, currently 50/1 in the ante-post market. Way down the Ballydoyle pecking order if the betting is to be believed.
Christmas Day strides like a 12-furlong 3-year-old. Consistent across four runs—the Gowran Park outing carries a moderate pace confidence warning (🟡).
The question is class. Will he be good enough? Steadily progressive, peaking when winning a Group 3 at Leopardstown on his final start. He needs to step up, but he’s going to be well suited to a greater test of stamina.
50/1 appeals as value for the 2026 Derby.
Wise Prince: 3yo Predicted Optimal Distance – 12.2f
Predicted Optimal Distance (by race):
- 1 Nov Nottingham → 12.2f
A late-season Novice win on his sole start. Quoted in the Derby market between 25/1 and 50/1.
Strides like a solid stayer, but class needs proving ahead of the 2026 Derby. One to watch for progress.
Marginal Stayers: 10f-11.9f
Horses predicted to fall just short of the Derby trip.
| Horse | 3yo Predicted Optimal Distance |
|---|---|
| Bay Of Brilliance | 11.1f |
| Endorsement | 10.7f |
| Montreal | 10.1f |
| Talk Of New York | 10.1f |
Bay Of Brilliance: 3yo Predicted Optimal Distance – 11.1f
Predicted Optimal Distance (by race):
- 27 Oct Redcar → 11.1f
- 24 Sept Goodwood → 14.0f 🔴
A dominant minor race win at Redcar. The 11.1f prediction puts him on the cusp of Derby distance.
Goodwood returned 14.0f but carries a very low confidence rating (🔴)—pace-distorted stride data. Treat cautiously.
Needs to prove both ability and stamina for Derby 2026.
Montreal: 3yo Predicted Optimal Distance – 10.1f
Predicted Optimal Distance (by race):
- 7 Aug Leopardstown → 10.1f
- 24 July Leopardstown → 10.1f
Two runs, same prediction: 10f horse. Impressive winner on his second start. Promising.
Not ruling him out entirely yet. Keen to see if his stride has progressed when he trials as a 3-year-old.
Endorsement: 3yo Predicted Optimal Distance – 10.7f
Predicted Optimal Distance (by race):
- 26 Oct Saint-Cloud → unknown
- 11 Oct Newmarket → 10.7f
- 31 Aug Tipperary → 10.3f
- 14 July Killarney → 9.3f 🔴
Stamina and ability look fairly exposed after four runs. Strides like a 10f 3-year-old.
Talk Of New York: 3yo Predicted Optimal Distance – 10.1f
Predicted Optimal Distance (by race):
- 15 Oct Kempton → 10.1f
Just one run to date—a very impressive Kempton win. Stride prediction: 10f horse.
What stood out was the speed he showed in the final two furlongs, prompting 2000 Guineas talk. That may be his route, but there’s stamina in his stride worth noting.
High potential, current prediction falls between 2000 Guineas and Derby distance. More runs needed to establish optimal distance before the 2026 Derby.
Horses At The Wrong Trip: Non-Stayers
The most valuable insight. Many of these horses sit prominently in the ante-post market. Predicted non-stayers at 12 furlongs. Eliminating them significantly increases the value available on genuine stayers.
| Horse | 3yo Predicted Optimal Distance |
|---|---|
| Humidity | 9.9f |
| Publish | 9.8f |
| Hankelow | 9.7f |
| Item | 9.5f |
| Bow Echo | 9.1f |
| Dorset | 9.1f |
| Morris Dancer | 8.9f |
| Italy | 8.9f |
| Puerto Rico | 8.7f |
| Raaheeb | 8.7f |
| Constitution River | 8.5f |
| Daytona | 8.3f |
| Amadeus Mozart | 8.3f |
| Distant Storm | 8.0f |
| Oxagon | 7.5f |
The Ascendant Stakes Outliers
The Listed race at Haydock produced interesting predictions: Bow Echo 12.1f and Publish 12.2f. Both predictions stood out as inconsistent with their other runs.
The race carries a moderate confidence warning (🟡)—pace-distorted stride data. Treat cautiously. A truly run, efficient pace is key to prediction accuracy. This mirrors Delacroix’s inflated prediction in a slow-run Derby trial.
Bow Echo
Predicted Optimal Distance (by race):
- 27 Sept Newmarket → 9.1f
- 6 Sept Haydock → 12.1f 🟡
- 15 Aug Newbury → 9.7f
Publish
Predicted Optimal Distance (by race):
- 6 Sept Haydock → 12.2f 🟡
- 24 July Sandown → 9.8f
- 4 July Sandown → 9.2f
Bow Echo looks a credible Guineas contender with range up to 10f. Publish was particularly eye-catching on looks—rangy, fluent mover at pace, though unorganised at times. One that will benefit from maturity and experience. Might not be quick enough for a Guineas or stay a Derby trip, nonetheless he’s an exciting prospect.
Distant Storm: 3yo Predicted Optimal Distance – 8.0f
Predicted Optimal Distance (by race):
- 11 Oct Newmarket → 8.1f
- 25 Sept Newmarket → 8.0f
- 20 Aug York → 8.3f
- 11 July Newmarket → 9.1f
Consistent across four runs: miler. A very good one.
20/1 Derby quotes seem fanciful.
Morris Dancer: 3yo Predicted Optimal Distance – 8.9f
Predicted Optimal Distance (by race):
- 13 Aug Salisbury → 8.9f
- 19 July Goodwood → 7.1f
- 30 May Haydock → 8.5f
Mile to 9-furlong horse. Worth mentioning only because he’s shortened in the Derby betting recently. That seems speculative.
Raaheeb: 3yo Predicted Optimal Distance – 8.7f
Predicted Optimal Distance (by race):
Limited evidence—just one run, winning at Ascot. On that effort, looks like a mile to 10f horse. More evidence needed.
Constitution River: 3yo Predicted Optimal Distance – 8.5f
Predicted Optimal Distance (by race):
- 23 Aug Curragh → 8.5f
- 28 July Galway → 8.6f
- 11 July Newmarket → 8.0f
Another who’s shortened recently—currently as low as 16/1. Strides like a miler. Three runs showing consistency just above 8f. Unlikely Derby 2026 contender.
Item: 3yo Predicted Optimal Distance – 9.4f
Predicted Optimal Distance (by race):
- 30 Sept Bath → 9.5f
- 3 Sept Kempton → 9.4f
Two wins from two, albeit in lowly company. Needs to prove class. Stride predictions suggest 10f horse, but he’s shown low minimum SPS consistent with middle-distance performers.
Limited evidence so far. Minimum SPS suggests some stamina in his stride – worth monitoring.
The remaining horses in this category—Humidity, Hankelow, Dorset, Italy, Puerto Rico, Daytona, Amadeus Mozart, and Oxagon—all show similar patterns: predicted optimal distances incompatible with the 12-furlong Derby trip.
Epsom Derby 2026 Predictions: Where The Value Lies
The ante-post Derby market is mispricing distance suitability. Multiple horses trading under 25/1 show biomechanical profiles indicating they won’t be effective at 12 furlongs.
Horses To Watch:
- Benvenuto Cellini (16/1, strongest credentials, mispriced at 4th favourite behind stable companions)
- Christmas Day (50/1 genuine stayer, consistent 12f predictions)
- New Zealand (overlooked, has a stride that will thrive once he gets a test of stamina)
Avoid: Prominent market positions filled with predicted non-stayers—Hawk Mountain, Action, Distant Storm, Constitution River all stride like milers being aimed at unsuitable trips.
The market hasn’t adjusted yet. Horses racing at the wrong trip create value—back genuine stayers before form proves it and prices move.
These Epsom Derby 2026 predictions are based on 2-year-old form. As Derby trials unfold through spring—the Dante Stakes, Derby Trial at Lingfield, Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial—stride data from 10f and 12f efforts will either confirm or contradict these predictions. A comprehensive post-trials update will follow in late May once all major contenders have been stretched out properly.
Related Articles:
Read our Epsom Oaks 2026 predictions for stride analysis of the fillies’ Classic.
Learn more about the stride biomechanics methodology behind these predictions.
Discover why some horses develop stamina while others don’t in our 7-furlong breakpoint analysis.
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