Epsom Derby 2026 - key trial races predicted distances

Epsom Derby 2026 — Stride Analysis of the Key Trials

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Which Derby hopefuls are actually built for twelve furlongs?

This page applies the StridePredictor 3yo and 2yo→3yo forecast models to the key Epsom Derby 2026 trials — predicted distances for the leading contenders from this spring’s 3yo trials and last season’s key juvenile races, updated as each trial is analysed.

3yo Current Model — R² 80.3%

P.W. McGrath Memorial Ballysax Stakes — Group 3 — Leopardstown, Yielding, 1m 2f, 3yo

Pace — LOW CONFIDENCE

PosHorsePredicted Distance
1stChristmas Day12.4f
2ndEndorsement9.6f
3rdA Boy Named Susie11.9f
4thItaly12.1f
5thJames J Braddock11.7f
6thSouth Island10.7f
7thPierre Bonnard11.3f
8thShosholoza11.5f
9thVictory Tip12.7f

Betway Feilden Stakes — Listed — Newmarket, Good, 1m 1f, 3yo

Pace — HIGH CONFIDENCE

PosHorsePredicted Distance
1stMorshdi8.0f
2ndPoseidon’s Warrior9.5f
3rdBourbon Blues8.4f
4thIsaac Newton7.7f
5thShayem8.3f
6thWareeth8.8f
7thCommand The Stars8.2f

Darley EBF Novice Stakes — Class 2 — Newbury, Good, 1m 2f, 3yo

Pace — HIGH CONFIDENCE

PosHorsePredicted Distance
1stMaltese Cross11.7f
2ndMy Love Is King10.9f
3rdJoulany12.8f
4thShabab Al Ahli11.8f
5thSahara King9.1f
6thAlfaraz12.1f
7thBarrister10.2f
8thMuch12.3f
9thEaswrith Destiny10.6f
10thAtaturk12.1f

Betway British EBF ‘Confined’ Novice Stakes — Class 2 — Newmarket, Good, 1m 2f, 3yo

Pace — LOW CONFIDENCE

PosHorsePredicted Distance
1stMaho Bay10.3f
2ndAmadeus Mozart9.0f
3rdGuildmaster9.1f
4thGaliyan8.8f
5thSir Griflet8.2f

Bet365 Classic Trial — Group 3 — Sandown, Good, 1m 1f 209y, 3yo

Pace — LOW CONFIDENCE

PosHorsePredicted Distance
1stRaaheeb10.6f
2ndAl Zanati10.1f
3rdWise Prince10.8f
4thAction9.9f
5thSpyce9.8f
6thWinding Stream9.4f
7thOceans Four10.4f

Boodles Chester Vase Stakes — Group 3 — Chester, Good, 1m 4f 63y, 3yo

Pace — GOOD CONFIDENCE

PosHorsePredicted Distance
1stBenvenuto Cellini14.4f
2ndProposition10.2f
3rdMr Colonel10.8f
4thDel Maro9.4f
5thMr Vettori9.6f

Cashel Palace Hotel Derby Trial Stakes — Group 3 — Leopardstown, Good, 1m 2f, 3yo

Pace — MODERATE CONFIDENCE

PosHorsePredicted Distance
1stJames J Braddock10.8f
2ndPierre Bonnard11.0f
3rdEndorsement9.3f
4thShaihaan12.6f
5thStraight Up10.5f

William Hill Lingfield Derby Trial Stakes — Listed — Lingfield, Good to Firm, 1m 3f 133y, 3yo

Pace — LOW CONFIDENCE

PosHorsePredicted Distance
1stMaltese Cross13.3f
2ndBay Of Brilliance11.5f
3rdBalzac12.0f
4thMaho Bay13.3f
5thIsaac Newton10.4f
6thA Taste of Glory10.2f

Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes — Group 2 — York, Good, 1m 2½f, 3yo

Pace — MODERATE CONFIDENCE

PosHorsePredicted Distance
1stItem10.7f
2ndAction9.7f
3rdChristmas Day10.1f
4thKing’s Trail10.5f
5thMorshdi9.4f
6thAl Zanati9.6f
7thGuildmaster10.4f
8thWise Prince11.3f

Epsom Derby 2026 — Key 2-Year-Old Trials

2yo→3yo Forecast Model — R² 79.6%

William Hill Futurity Trophy Stakes — Group 1 — Doncaster, Heavy, 1m, 2yo

Pace — GOOD CONFIDENCE

Pos Horse Predicted Distance
1stHawk Mountain9.2f
2ndAction8.5f
3rdBenvenuto Cellini12.4f
4thRochfortbridge9.2f
5thOxagon8.8f

Night Of Thunder Zetland Stakes — Group 3 — Newmarket, Good to Firm, 1m 2f, 2yo

Pace — GOOD CONFIDENCE

Pos Horse Predicted Distance
1stPierre Bonnard11.7f
2ndEndorsement10.4f
3rdDel Maro11.6f
4thSpyce11.4f
5thMr Colonel13.1f
6thLook To The Stars11.1f
7thAllegresse12.2f
8thLoz Vegas11.0f

Mongey Communications Eyrefield Stakes — Group 3 — Leopardstown, Yielding, 1m 1f, 2yo

Pace — GOOD CONFIDENCE

Pos Horse Predicted Distance
1stChristmas Day12.2f
2ndA Boy Named Susie11.3f
3rdPort Of Spain11.1f
4thPiazza San Marco12.3f
5thNil Bua Gan Dua13.0f
6thListentodwindblow11.2f
7thThread Of Gold12.7f
8thSouth Island10.5f

Qatar Racing & Equestrian Club Beresford Stakes — Group 2 — Curragh, Yielding to Soft, 1m, 2yo

Pace — MODERATE CONFIDENCE

Pos Horse Predicted Distance
1stHawk Mountain9.6f
2ndGeryon10.3f
3rdAl Haarith9.6f
4thShaihaan12.3f
5thPort Of Spain9.9f

Predictions on this page reflect the latest model iterations. Where a horse appears on earlier StridePredictor pages, minor differences in predicted distance may occur as models are updated with expanded training data. The predictions here supersede earlier estimates.