Raaheeb headlined a high-class Sandown card on Friday. He won the Classic Trial and shortened in the Derby market. The Esher Cup produced four progressive 3yos pointing at 10 furlongs. Felicitas made it two from two and deservedly started picking up Oaks mentions.
Plenty more came from elsewhere. A Doncaster sprinter who debuted on the absolute minimum trip. A Hannon 3yo whose handicap mark sat unchanged after a run that should have moved it. Aidan O’Brien’s first juvenile of the season in this column.
Eight horses. Five meetings. One angle worth keeping for Royal Ascot week.
This edition: Raaheeb | Organise | Nobody Knows | Felicitas | Lost Signal | Sailor Song | Manatee Mehmas | Marcellinus | Great Barrier Reef
Raaheeb — Sandown Classic Trial Winner
| Run | Course | Predicted Distance |
|---|---|---|
| 24 Apr 2026 | Sandown | 10.6f** |
| 05 Sept 2025 | Ascot | 8.5f |
** Low pace confidence
Impressive in winning the Sandown Classic Trial. Shortened up to second favourite for the Derby on the back of it.
The race carried a low pace confidence warning. The 10.6f prediction is of limited use in determining where he is most effective.
Whether Raaheeb will be at his best over 12 furlongs, the data here cannot say. Treat directionally. Clearly a high-class horse in the making — I’d want to see more evidence before being with or against him over the Derby trip.
One to watch with interest.
Bet365 Esher Cup — Sandown, 24 April | 3yo | 1m
| Pos | Horse | Predicted Distance |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | Laureate Crown | 9.9f |
| 2nd | Organise | 9.6f |
| 3rd | Nobody Knows | 9.6f |
| 4th | Capall Rasa | 10.1f |
Pace — HIGH CONFIDENCE
The Esher Cup is traditionally a strong early-season mile handicap for 3yos. This year’s renewal looks no different. Solid pace, high confidence predictions, four progressive horses pointing in a similar distance direction.
All four look most effective around 10 furlongs.
Organise and Nobody Knows stand out for scope — three runs apiece, plenty of room to develop. Organise holds a Dante entry and looks a Group horse in time. Raised 4lbs to a mark of 101 for this effort. It will be interesting to see if his mark may be preserved for something like the Golden Gates at Royal Ascot — a 0–105 handicap.
Similar comments apply to Nobody Knows. Predicted optimal 9.6f, raised 4lbs to a mark of 93. Similar Royal Ascot targets apply. Improvement should come when stepped up to around 10 furlongs.
Felicitas (Ed Walker) — Predicted Optimal 12.1f
| Run | Course | Predicted Distance |
|---|---|---|
| 24 Apr 2026 | Sandown | 12.1f |
| 15 Dec 2025 | Lingfield | 12.7f* |
* Moderate pace confidence
Felicitas burst a few reputations at Sandown, making it two wins from two starts in what is traditionally a decent fillies novice. She was comfortably better than the opposition.
The stride data points firmly at 12 furlongs across both runs. She will be at her best when stepped up from 10f.
Connections talked afterwards of the Oaks. She has significant improvement to make to be considered a serious Oaks contender. What we can say is she will be well suited by the distance.
Lost Signal (Richard Hannon) — Predicted Optimal 8.0f
| Run | Course | Predicted Distance |
|---|---|---|
| 14 Apr 2026 | Newmarket | 8.0f |
| 22 Aug 2025 | Ffos Las | 9.3f** |
| 26 Jul 2025 | Salisbury | 7.0f* |
| 18 Jul 2025 | Newbury | 8.3f** |
* Moderate pace confidence ** Low pace confidence
For Lost Signal we skip back to the Craven meeting. Three runs as a 2yo, winning twice after a promising debut in what has turned out to be a decent novice. All three carry pace warnings to varying degrees — used directionally at most.
Step forward to the Craven meeting and Lost Signal runs second behind Talk Of New York. TONY misses the Guineas but is the real deal — in time, a Group, probably Group 1 miler. Lost Signal returned a high confidence 8.0f prediction in this race. A mile looks like his most effective distance.
Now — why the focus on this race. Lost Signal had a handicap mark of 89 going in. After that run, a rise of around 10lbs would have been fair given the improvement shown. Lost Signal was entered the Friday after the Newmarket run in the Esher Cup at Sandown — a prize worth winning, and in handicapping terms a penalty kick for Lost Signal off 89 on what he showed at Newmarket.
The mark wasn’t put up at all. He didn’t run at Sandown.
Now — pure conjecture, joining the dots.
Did connections see his mark remained the same and think we can target any handicap off a great mark, while giving him a little more time between races.
I don’t know.
What I am confident in: Lost Signal strides like a horse who will be most effective stepped up to a mile, and on 89 he is on a very decent mark. It will be very interesting to see where he turns up next. Preserve that mark for something like the Britannia at Royal Ascot?
Sailor Song (Charlie Appleby) — Predicted Optimal 9.1–9.3f
| Run | Course | Predicted Distance |
|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr 2026 | Doncaster | 9.1f** |
| 11 Apr 2026 | Southwell | 9.1f |
| 28 Mar 2026 | Doncaster | 9.3f |
| 28 Feb 2026 | Southwell | 9.9f |
** Low pace confidence
Sailor Song has featured in these pages before. The two runs that matter most — Southwell on 11 April and Doncaster on 28 March — were his best, both run on a high pace confidence read.
His debut at Southwell returned 9.9f, but across four runs the consistent picture is that of a horse most effective around or slightly over 9 furlongs.
Three runs qualified him for this — his first handicap at Doncaster, where he was stepped up to the longest trip he has faced, 11.9f. He finished 6th, beaten 17 and a half lengths.
Based on his second behind High Storm, and his second at Southwell, Sailor Song off a mark of 82 is on a fair handicap mark — one he is capable of winning off. He may drop a couple of pounds after this, given the distance beaten. It is not the mark stopping him being competitive. It is the distance he is racing over.
Drop him back to 9 furlongs and he will be worthy of close inspection.
Manatee Mehmas (David O’Meara) — Predicted Optimal 5.0f
| Run | Course | Predicted Distance |
|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr 2026 | Doncaster | 5.0f |
Very well supported on debut, which proved well placed. The early leader took them along at a brisk pace, then the second favourite Time To Take Off took it up two furlongs out before Manatee Mehmas sauntered past him to win emphatically. Significant distance was put between himself and the rest of the field. Well strung out — indicative of a solid pace and thorough test, but also the quality of the race.
Not the greatest race on paper. But you will rarely see an easier winner on debut over 5f.
What does the stride profile say? Predicted distance comes in bang on 5.0f. No surprise that, having debuted over five as a 3yo, he is a sprinter. The significant point is that the model puts him on the absolute minimum race distance — the model can predict below 5.0f when the biomechanics indicate it. It doesn’t here.
That points to a real speedster. 5f rather than 6f, fast tracks. Somewhere like York will play to his strengths.
Marcellinus — Predicted Optimal 6.5f
| Run | Course | Predicted Distance |
|---|---|---|
| 17 Apr 2026 | Bath | 6.5f |
| 20 Nov 2025 | Southwell | 4.9f** |
| 28 Oct 2025 | Leicester | 6.5f |
| 23 Jun 2025 | Windsor | 6.2f |
** Low pace confidence
They went very quick early at Bath. Marcellinus was part responsible for putting pace to the race and won well. He remains on a very good mark.
The Bath race was over 5.7f with Marcellinus returning a predicted distance of 6.5f — in line with his other two runs in high confidence pace races. Most effective around the 6.5f mark.
So no major improvement angle in the optimal distance. The angle is the meeting. Connections love a runner and winner at Chester, the May meeting is coming up, and there is a 6f 3yo handicap — the race won by Hammer The Hammer last year — that looks ideal. Marcellinus is on a very good mark, demonstrated lightning early speed at Bath, and the track plays to that.
The first Stride Watch 2yo of the season.
Great Barrier Reef (Aidan O’Brien) — Predicted Optimal 7.7f (3yo forecast)
| Run | Course | Predicted Distance |
|---|---|---|
| 19 Apr 2026 | Curragh | 7.7f |
An impressive debut win — one of the strongest 2yo performances of the early season. Immediately installed as favourite for the Coventry at Royal Ascot, as short as 2/1 in places, as big as 3/1 elsewhere. Make of that what you will. Early days, plenty of 2yos to debut between now and June.
The 7.7f prediction is the predicted optimal for Great Barrier Reef as a 3yo. So while of interest now, the model becomes a stronger tool later in the season — when thoughts turn to next year’s Classics. We are miles off thinking about that for now.
Single run. Predicted optimal as a 3yo — 7.7f.
Horses To Watch
Plenty to take from a strong week. Organise and Nobody Knows are the cleanest improvers — both Esher Cup placed, both progressive, both pointing at 10 furlongs as their most effective distance. Raaheeb carries the headline and the high-class profile, but the data carries a caveat — the Sandown read was low confidence and another run on a truly run race is needed to crystallise views on his optimal distance. And Lost Signal is the one for a big mile handicap when stepped up — the Britannia at Royal Ascot off a preserved mark of 89 might be a potential target.