Derby 2026: Trainer Intent

The Derby 2026 entries were published on Tuesday 24th February. Most coverage focused on the obvious names — the powerful stables, the Classic-bred types, the horses already carrying Group race form. That’s the obvious story.

This isn’t that story.


Six horses on the Derby 2026 entry list with significant untapped potential.

Maltese Cross — a trainer who chooses his words carefully spoke glowingly after the win. The stride data backs him up.

Infraad — one run, one signal. Big, raw, powerful. Points firmly to 12 furlongs.

Joulany — ignore York. The Kempton run is the one that counts.

Alfaraz — beaten twice, ran with huge promise both times. A stride profile pointing to 10 furlongs.

Golden Story — Karl Burke rarely aims at Epsom. The stride data says 10.5 furlongs. Worth following regardless.

Raaheeb — full brother to Baaeed and Hukum. Owen Burrows doesn’t waste entries.

Here’s what the stride data says about all of them — and the 21 other horses on the list.


This article is about potential. It’s about horses who are better than they have shown. It’s about stride biomechanics — how a horse actually moves — and what that tells us about where their peak performance will come.

A Derby entry signals intent. But it doesn’t always signal 12 furlongs. Some horses here profile as genuine middle-distance stayers. Others sit in the 10-11f range. A few are genuinely surprising — stride data pointing well short of the Derby trip. Whether those entries are aspirational or whether lightly raced horses simply haven’t shown their true distance yet is one of the most interesting questions in this piece.


Why the Derby 2026 Entries Matter Now

It’s about using the entry as a signal — connections telling you, quietly, that this horse has potential not yet fully exposed on the racecourse. For the full ante-post picture, the Epsom Derby 2026 ante-post analysis covers the market in detail. But this piece is about something different.

A horse good enough to warrant a Derby entry from a trainer who rarely makes them is a horse showing potential at home. Of course, not every horse realises that potential — and not every entry is a serious statement. But for the trainers and horses in this piece, there’s more to it than that. Connections don’t commit to the Classic trail with a horse that isn’t impressing them.

The Derby entry process changed in 2024. Previously horses were entered as yearlings — before they’d raced, before they’d been seriously trained, based largely on pedigree alone. A son of Galileo got an entry. That was often as scientific as it got. The new system requires initial entries in February of the 3yo year — most of these horses have raced, they’ve been trained, connections know what they have. An entry now means something fundamentally different to what it meant before — it is a considered statement made on real evidence. And when the second-stage entries close on 22nd April, those who remain will have confirmed that statement twice.

Here’s the full analysis — all 27 horses, stride data applied.


The William Haggas Trio

The following horses are profiled in this section — predicted optimal distances are based on biomechanical stride data.

HorsePredicted Optimal
Maltese Cross12.2f
Infraad12.4f
Morshdi9.1-9.2f

Three horses from the top-class William Haggas stable, none of which has raced above maiden or novice level. Haggas has a well-established history of taking his time with horses — progression comes with racing and maturity. Future Group performers regularly work through the grades, many starting in handicaps before stepping up.

With multiple options in the stable, it is significant that these three lightly raced horses — none of whom has shown anywhere near the form required to be Derby competitive — have received initial stage entries. It is possible that one, two, or all three are future Group performers. The stride profiles offer an early indication.

Maltese Cross

William Haggas · 2 runs · Predicted optimal: 12.2f

Debuted in a truly run race at Ascot — the high confidence reading returns a predicted optimal of 12.2f. He looks a genuine middle-distance prospect. His second start, a narrow Class 4 maiden win at Newmarket, carries a pace confidence warning — the race ran 10 lengths slow and the 10.5f prediction from that run misleads. He wants 12f to be most effective. The level of form across both runs is unspectacular, but Haggas was notably positive after Newmarket: “Start next season in a trial and go down the pattern route rather than handicaps.” He is clearly well regarded. One to note when he reappears in 2026.

MALTESE CROSS (FR) – Pedigree Chart | StridePredictor
MALTESE CROSS (FR)
Trainer: William Haggas · Colt 2023
Predicted Optimal Distance: 12.2f
SEA THE STARS (IRE)
2006 · Gr.1, 1m–12f
Stamina
NABATEA (GER)
2015 · By Camelot
CAPE CROSS (IRE)
1994 · Gr.1, 1m
Mile
URBAN SEA (USA)
1989 · Gr.1, 12f
Stamina
CAMELOT (GB)
2009 · Gr.1, 1m–12f
Stamina
NEELE (IRE)
2004 · Gr.3 placed
Stamina
Sire Line
Dam Line
StridePredictor.com

Infraad

William Haggas · 1 run · Predicted optimal: 12.4f

A single run, finishing second at Doncaster. He looked a tank of a horse — powerful and raw, exactly the type to improve significantly with time and racing. The Derby entry signals potential that connections clearly believe in. Stride profile from a high confidence reading points to 12.4f. A very interesting middle-distance prospect.

Morshdi

William Haggas · 2 runs · Predicted optimal: 9.1-9.2f

Two runs, both returning pace confidence warnings with predicted optimals closely clustered at 9.2f and 9.1f — treat both with caution. His York win turned into a three-furlong test of speed; neither race is likely to have shown Morshdi to best effect. The Derby entry signals the regard connections hold him in. Another likely to progress as the 2026 season unfolds.


The John & Thady Gosden Six

HorsePredicted Optimal
Saxon Street11.9f
Wise Prince11.9f
Enoch8.2f
My Love Is King10.0f
Guildmaster9.9f
Quartermaster8.4f

Six horses from the powerful John and Thady Gosden stable — all with a single run, all winning, none above maiden or novice level.

A stable packed with high-class thoroughbred pedigrees, Gosden horses regularly develop into Group performers having started life in the most ordinary of company. Six Derby 2026 entries from horses with nothing more than a single maiden or novice win to their name is a significant statement of intent.

Form on the track so far tells us very little. Pedigree and home reputation tells us considerably more. This group will contain future Group-class performers — the stride profiles offer an early indication of where their best trips may lie.

Single runs in maiden and novice company — the form shown on the track so far is unlikely to be anywhere near what some of these horses are capable of.

Saxon Street

J & T Gosden · 1 run · Predicted optimal: 11.9f

Modest form on debut but a truly run race gives confidence in the 11.9f prediction. The stride profile is unambiguous — he will be more effective once stepped up to middle distances.

Wise Prince

J & T Gosden · 1 run · Predicted optimal: 11.9f

Debut win over 8.5f, but the stride profile points firmly to 12 furlongs. A step up in trip is going to help him considerably.

Enoch

J & T Gosden · 1 run · Predicted optimal: 8.2f

Perhaps the most eye-catching of the six on debut, visually making up significant ground in the closing stages, backed up by the sectionals. His final 2-furlong sectional was 0.76 seconds faster than the next quickest. A strong finisher can invite the assumption he wants further, but the stride data tells a different story. A predicted optimal of 8.2f — he profiles as a prospective miler rather than a middle-distance horse.

ENOCH (IRE) – Pedigree Chart | StridePredictor
ENOCH (IRE)
Trainer: John & Thady Gosden · Colt 2023
Predicted Optimal Distance: 8.2f
FRANKEL (GB)
2008 · Gr.1, 1m–10f
Stamina
DARKOVA (USA)
2008 · Unraced
GALILEO (IRE)
1998 · Gr.1, 12f
Stamina
KIND (IRE)
2001 · Listed, 5–6f
Sprint
MARIAS MON (USA)
1993 · Champion 2yo, 6–8f
Speed
DARKARA (IRE)
2001 · Listed, 12f
Stamina
Sire Line
Dam Line
StridePredictor.com

My Love Is King

J & T Gosden · 1 run · Predicted optimal: 10.0f

Won a 7-furlong Newcastle novice off a steady early pace, looking green and inexperienced when asked to quicken but doing it comfortably enough in the end. Predicted optimal of 10.0f — short of the Derby trip on current data, though single run evidence off a steady pace means a mile and a half can’t be ruled out entirely. Sire Kingman out of 12-furlong Galileo mare Fallen In Love — the stamina may be there. A good prospect for middle-distance races.

Guildmaster

J & T Gosden · 1 run · Predicted optimal: 9.9f

More on this horse in the dedicated Stride Watch analysis.

Quartermaster

J & T Gosden · 1 run · Predicted optimal: 8.4f

Debut win in a 7-furlong Chelmsford novice, form very ordinary. The race ran at a solid pace so the 8.4f predicted optimal carries confidence. The Derby entry is a strong indication better is to come — though going by the stride profile, that improvement is likely to show itself around a mile rather than the 12-furlong Derby trip.


The Ralph Beckett Three

HorsePredicted Optimal
Joulany9.6f
Lyneham10.0-10.5f
Gonna Fly12.9f

Three unexposed horses from the Ralph Beckett stable, each with a stride profile worth noting.

Joulany

Ralph Beckett · 2 runs · Predicted optimal: 9.6f

Debuted in a strong Kempton novice, splitting subsequent winners Look To The Stars and Yazin. A decent race, run in a good time — the 9.6f predicted optimal carries high confidence and looks solid.

York was a different story. On his Kempton showing a race he was well capable of winning, it all went wrong. Slow early pace turned the contest into a three-furlong burn-up and Joulany couldn’t close on quickening rivals in front of him. Put a line through the York prediction of 12.7f — false pace, unreliable data. The 9.6f from Kempton is the number that counts.

The Derby entry shows connections haven’t lost faith. The Kempton effort is the better guide on ability and the messy York race is best set aside. Whether 12 furlongs is within his range, the Kempton data would suggest not — but more runs will reveal more. If he goes the handicap route, one more run for a mark would be interesting. An intriguing prospect around the 10f mark.

Lyneham

Ralph Beckett · 2 runs · Predicted optimal: 10.0-10.5f

Two runs, winning a Newmarket maiden over a mile on second start. Stride predictions of 10.5f and 10.0f across both runs are closely aligned — consistent data pointing to a mile and a quarter as the optimal trip. The Derby entry signals more to come.

Gonna Fly

Ralph Beckett · 1 run · Predicted optimal: 12.9f

A single run as a juvenile, winning on soft ground at Newbury. The stamina is in the stride signature — Gonna Fly moves like a middle-distance horse and the 12.9f predicted optimal is the highest of any horse profiled here. The data and the Derby entry are pointing in exactly the same direction.

GONNA FLY (IRE) – Pedigree Chart | StridePredictor
GONNA FLY (IRE)
Trainer: Ralph Beckett · Colt 2023
Predicted Optimal Distance: 12.9f
STARSPANGLEDBANNER (AUS)
2006 · Gr.1, 6f
Speed
IL PALAZZO (USA)
2010 · Placed, 8f
Mile
CHOISIR (AUS)
1999 · Gr.1, 6f
Speed
GOLD ANTHEM (AUS)
1999 · Sprint
Speed
GIANTS CAUSEWAY (USA)
1997 · Gr.1, 1m–10f
Mile / Stamina
STARLIGHT NIGHT (USA)
1999 · Placed, 10f
Stamina
Sire Line
Dam Line
StridePredictor.com

The Andrew Balding Pair

HorsePredicted Optimal
Alfaraz9.7f
Turty Tree12.0f

Two horses from the Andrew Balding stable — a yard whose horses improve significantly with racecourse experience and maturity. More than most stables, Balding horses step forward from run one to run two. Keep that in mind when reading both profiles.

Alfaraz

Andrew Balding · 2 runs · Predicted optimal: 9.7f

Two runs without a win but running to a fair level. Debuted at Goodwood in a truly run race, finishing second — the 9.7f predicted optimal carries high confidence and is the number to trust. Headed to Epsom next where the defeat was initially a little disappointing — but Shayem, the horse who beat him, went on to win a Listed race on his next start. A better effort than it looked at the time. The Epsom race was slow through the early furlongs — the 10.5f prediction from that run carries a mild warning.

Before the Derby entry, Alfaraz looked a natural fit for the top 3yo handicaps around 10 furlongs. His stride profile points to him being most effective at that trip. The Derby entry signals the regard he is held in — connections may target trials directly rather than the handicap route. If he does turn up in handicaps, he is definitely one to note.

Turty Tree

Andrew Balding · 1 run · Predicted optimal: 12.0f

One run as a juvenile, finishing second in a Newmarket novice over a mile. The stride signature is stamina-laden — a predicted optimal of 12f from a single run is a clear signal. Given Balding’s well-documented run-to-run improvement, expect considerably better on reappearance. A Derby entry on the back of a single second is a strong statement from a top stable. Strides like a horse who will be most effective stepped up significantly in trip.


Individual Horses

HorseTrainerPredicted Optimal
Golden StoryKarl Burke10.5f
Winding StreamRichard Hughes9.2f
Golden KnightEd Walker10.1-12.0f
BalzacJane Chapple-Hyam9.5f

The stable groups tell one story. But some of the most interesting signals come from individual horses whose trainers rarely aim at Epsom, making a quiet statement with one horse.

Golden Story

Karl Burke · 1 run · Predicted optimal: 10.5f

Karl Burke has established himself as one of Britain’s leading trainers in recent years — Group 1 winners, a string of top-level performers, a stable operating consistently at the highest level. But Derby runners? Virtually uncharted territory. Libertarian finished second in 2013 under extraordinary circumstances — that is as close as Burke has come to winning at Epsom. A Derby entry for Golden Story carries significant weight precisely because of that context.

One run as a juvenile, winning the same Doncaster maiden that Infraad finished second in. Very raw, very green — and still won with authority. Burke was revealing post-race: “At least a Listed horse next year. Very raw, very green, the race will have done him the world of good.” The predicted optimal of 10.5f comes from a soundly run event and carries high confidence. An exciting prospect for 2026.

Winding Stream

Richard Hughes · 1 run · Predicted optimal: 9.2f

A single Southwell novice win and a Derby entry from the Richard Hughes stable makes you take note. Sent off a short-priced favourite in October — the regard was evident then as it is now. The Southwell race ran 5.7 lengths slow, tempering confidence in the 9.2f prediction a little. Single race evidence puts Winding Stream optimal around 9 furlongs — short of the Derby test on current data. More evidence required before drawing firm conclusions on trip. Probably not a Derby player but an interesting prospect to follow in 2026.

Golden Knight

Ed Walker · 2 runs · Predicted optimal: 10.1-12.0f

Twice raced, winning a Newmarket novice on second start — beating Turty Tree in the process. A Derby entry for trainer Ed Walker is a signal worth noting.

The stride data requires careful handling. The Haydock reading of 12.0f comes from an efficiently run race but sits on a marginal model threshold — a tiny variation in stride frequency and that prediction drops significantly. The Newmarket win returns 10.1f. Two runs, nearly a 2-furlong variation in predictions — the call is 10-12 furlongs as the effective range until further evidence narrows it. A Derby entry on two runs signals connections see more to come.

Balzac

Jane Chapple-Hyam · 1 run · Predicted optimal: 9.5f

One run in 2025, finishing third behind Maltese Cross at Newmarket. An eye-catcher in the race — running on nicely in the closing stages having got noticeably unbalanced in the dip. Expect improvement for the experience. The data requires more caution — the race ran 10 lengths slow and the 9.5f predicted optimal carries a confidence warning as a result.

From a smaller stable that takes its time and places horses well, a Derby entry on a single run third is a quiet but meaningful statement. A good prospect for 2026 — but one where the stride picture will only sharpen once tested at a true pace.


Amo Racing — Intent or Ambition?

HorseTrainerPredicted Optimal
PokerKarl Burke10.7f
Domenico ContariniK Philippart De Foy11.5f

Amo Racing. Flamboyant, big-spending, controversial — an ownership group who have invested heavily in top-priced yearlings and are yet to see the returns that investment demands. Three horses carry the Amo colours on the Derby entry list. Two of them fit the lightly raced, unexposed profile this piece is focused on.

Poker

Karl Burke · 2 runs · Predicted optimal: 10.7f

Hard to miss. A 4.3 million guinea purchase, Poker arrived at Haydock on debut carrying enormous expectations — and failed to meet them, finishing sixth and looking fairly average. Second behind Bay Of Brilliance on his next start at Redcar. The profile is more widely known than most horses at this stage purely because of the price tag attached.

Two runs return predictions of 8.5f at Haydock and 10.7f at Redcar. The Redcar figure is the one to work with for now — and there may be more to come over further. The form so far doesn’t demand a Derby entry and the 10.7f prediction suggests a mile and a quarter horse rather than a Classic stayer. Whether the entry reflects genuine belief in Poker’s potential or the ambition that comes with a 4.3 million guinea purchase, only connections know. Worth monitoring — but one where more evidence is needed before the stride data or the entry can be taken at full face value.

Domenico Contarini

Kevin Philippart De Foy · 1 run · Predicted optimal: 11.5f

Debuted at Newcastle on the very day the initial Derby entries were published — a promising second on first appearance. The timing alone makes the entry noteworthy. The stride data points to 11.5f, suggesting a genuine middle-distance prospect, but the first three furlongs at Newcastle ran slower than optimum. That clouds both the merit of the performance and confidence in the prediction. Treat the 11.5f with caution — the profile looks interesting, but more evidence is needed before drawing firm conclusions.


The Richard Hannon Pair

HorsePredicted Optimal
Barrister9.1f
Alderman8.7-9.2f

Two horses from the Richard Hannon stable, both lightly raced and a long way short of Derby form on what they have shown so far.

Barrister

Richard Hannon · 1 run · Predicted optimal: 9.1f

A single Kempton novice appearance, finishing fourth — his sole racecourse outing to date. The Derby entry signals connections believe considerably more is to come. The 9.1f predicted optimal carries a marginal pace confidence rating, the race running 5 lengths slow. The number is in the right ballpark but treat with a degree of caution until validated by a true run race.

Alderman

Richard Hannon · 2 runs · Predicted optimal: 8.7-9.2f

Two runs in 2025, debuting in a decent Sandown maiden where he finished well beaten in seventh — but the race was a true test and the 8.7f predicted optimal is solid and reliable. Improved on his second start, finishing third in a Kempton maiden with a predicted optimal of 9.2f. Consistent, sound data across both runs. The form shown is a long way off Derby standard — but the entry signals connections think him capable of considerably better. One more run for a handicap mark and he could be of interest if he surfaces in that sphere.


The Roger Varian Pair

HorsePredicted Optimal
Glory Of The Seas10.4f
Ilraawi9.5f

Two once-raced maidens from the Roger Varian stable — well-bred types whose racecourse efforts to date give little away. Both Derby entries signal connections believe considerably more is to come.

Glory Of The Seas

Roger Varian · 1 run · Predicted optimal: 10.4f

A single run returning a predicted optimal of 10.4f from a truly run race — solid, reliable data. Form modest, but from a big stable with a history of developing well-bred horses into Group performers. The Derby entry says more than the racecourse evidence does at this stage.

Ilraawi

Roger Varian · 1 run · Predicted optimal: 9.5f

One run at Newcastle, finishing second behind fellow Derby entrant My Love Is King. Average form on the surface — but the Derby entry signals the stable believe he is capable of considerably better. Predicted optimal of 9.5f.


More Derby 2026 Entries Worth Your Attention

HorseTrainerPredicted Optimal
FaeberonS & E Crisford9.2-9.4f
PatheinEd Dunlop9.5-10.2f
RaaheebOwen Burrows8.7f

Faeberon

Simon & Ed Crisford · 2 runs · Predicted optimal: 9.2-9.4f

Two runs in 2025 — seventh of nine on debut, fourth in a Class 5 Newcastle maiden on second start. In the context of Derby contenders, miles off what is required. Predicted optimals of 9.2f and 9.4f are consistent and point to effectiveness short of the Derby trip. The entry signals connections believe he is capable of considerably better than his racecourse form suggests. One more run for a handicap mark — if he surfaces in that sphere stepped up to 9-10 furlongs, he would be of interest.

Pathein

Ed Dunlop · 2 runs · Predicted optimal: 9.5-10.2f

A fair maiden win on debut at Doncaster, then straight into Group 3 company where he ran with credit in fifth behind Hankelow. That Group 3 experience likely closes the handicap route for now — his cover is arguably blown in that regard. Whether he is good enough to win a Derby is another question entirely, and probably not one the current form answers in his favour. Predicted optimals of 9.5f and 10.2f point to around 10 furlongs as his most effective trip. An interesting horse navigating a slightly awkward position on the Classic trail.

Raaheeb

Owen Burrows · 1 run · Predicted optimal: 8.7f

Owen Burrows — pound for pound one of the best trainers in the country and arguably the shrewdest placer of horses for maximum return. He doesn’t waste entries. That alone demands attention.

The pedigree is well documented — full brother to champion Baaeed and top-class performer Hukum. Single run evidence to date, a comfortable winner of a 7-furlong Ascot maiden. His stride profile from that win returns a predicted optimal of 8.7f — more Baaeed than Hukum on that single piece of evidence. Whether he is a Derby horse, the current data would say probably not. But this is a horse with exceptional pedigree, a promising debut and a Derby entry from one of the most selective stables in the country.

RAAHEEB (IRE) – Pedigree Chart | StridePredictor
RAAHEEB (IRE)
Trainer: Owen Burrows · Colt 2023
Predicted Optimal Distance: 8.7f
SEA THE STARS (IRE)
2006 · Gr.1, 1m–12f
Stamina
AGHAREED (USA)
2009 · Listed, 10f
Stamina
CAPE CROSS (IRE)
1994 · Gr.1, 1m
Mile
URBAN SEA (USA)
1989 · Gr.1, 12f
Stamina
KINGMAMBO (USA)
1990 · Gr.1, 1m
Mile
LAHUDOOD (GB)
2003 · Gr.1, 11f
Stamina
Sire Line
Dam Line
StridePredictor.com

The Ones That Excite Me Most

Twenty-seven horses. Stride data applied. Six stand out.

Maltese Cross — The Haggas quote after Newmarket wasn’t throwaway. Trainers of his calibre choose their words carefully. Watch for him in a trial — he’ll be better when stepped up to 12 furlongs and his aerobic capacity is properly tested.

Infraad — One run. The Derby entry signals intent. The stride prediction signals 12 furlongs. Both pointing in the same direction. Give him time — big, raw horses from this stable regularly need it.

Joulany — The Kempton data is solid. York is noise. The Kempton run was better than it looked — he split subsequent winners and the 9.6f prediction carries high confidence. If he goes the handicap route and gets a fair mark, the 10 furlong trip is the one to watch.

Alfaraz — Ran with huge promise both times. A stable that develops horses run to run, and a stride profile pointing to him being most effective at around 10 furlongs. If he turns up in a top 3yo handicap en route, take note.

Golden Story — Karl Burke doesn’t do Derby entries lightly. Raw and green at Doncaster and still won with authority. The 10.5f prediction carries high confidence. One to follow all season.

Raaheeb — The data currently says 8.7f. The pedigree says exceptional. And Owen Burrows — one of the shrewdest placers of horses in the country — doesn’t waste entries. That combination alone demands attention.

The potential in this piece doesn’t have an expiry date.

The market hasn’t caught on yet. Find value before it does.