STRIDE WATCH
Finding value before the market does.
Stride Watch highlights horses whose biomechanics reveal they’re racing at the wrong distance. Using predictive models, we identify which horses will improve significantly once stepped up or dropped back to suit their movement profile—before form proves it and prices adjust.
This week: Extremely Zain | Lake Como | Lord Mayor | Objector
Extremely Zain
3yo Predicted Optimal Distance: 8.7f (model override: 10-12f)
Trainer: William Haggas
Last Run: 29 Dec Newcastle – 6f (won by 7L)
Something unusual happened at Newcastle on Monday.
Extremely Zain won a run-of-the-mill Class 4 novice by seven lengths. Visually impressive. Technically freakish—low stride cadence, huge stride length.
Over 6 furlongs, across several years of two-year-old analysis, this stride profile stands alone. Outlier territory. The kind of biomechanical pattern that breaks predictive models.
For two-year-olds in truly run races over 6 furlongs, 80% cluster around 2.30-2.40 average SPS.
So, was this race truly run? Sectional times confirm standard 6-furlong energy use—burst of speed early, gradual depletion to the finish. Classic anaerobic sprint setup. No concerns.
In the Newcastle race, Extremely Zain displayed a stride with stamina characteristics while competing in a sprint environment. All other horses in the race showed sprint stride signatures.
Extremely Zain just breezed through with no apparent adaptation in his stride pattern. One conclusion: he was vastly superior in terms of ability. Very exciting indeed, given the prospect of him stepping up into aerobic energy trips beyond 7 furlongs.
Middle-distance horses debuting in sprints typically adapt—striding faster to compete. Extremely Zain’s stride data shows none of the characteristic sprint adaptations. Either he didn’t adapt, or his baseline stamina stride is off the scale.
Predictive models work brilliantly within normal parameters, but sometimes intuition takes over. Extremely Zain’s stride analysis pattern sits so far outside the norm that the 3yo predicted optimal comes in at just 8.7f. I suspect that’s falling far short of his best trip.
Single-run analysis carries risk. But when stride biomechanics sit this far outside normal parameters, the signal overrides the limited sample size.
As a 3-year-old: 10-12 furlongs.
Pedigree confirms biomechanics. Dosage Index 0.86 points to classic staying ability. The Galileo dam has dominated the genetic influence—stamina-packed bloodline overwhelming Hello Youmzain’s sprint profile.
A handful of firms price him at 40/1 for the 2000 Guineas. Stride analysis suggests he’ll be most effective beyond mile distance.
Without biomechanical analysis, this looks like another well-bred horse from a top stable winning easily on debut. Happens regularly.
With stride analysis, it’s freakish. Readers: take note.
The question is how that stride profile holds—or changes—when connections step him up beyond 7+ furlongs into aerobic racing territory.
Of all the 2-year-olds analysed in 2025, Extremely Zain is the standout. Watch closely.
Lake Como
3yo Predicted Optimal Distance: 12.2f
Trainer: George Boughey
Last Run: 28 Dec Southwell – 1m 13y (won)
Not for the first time, Lake Como caught the attention.
Predicted Optimal Distance (by race):
- 28 Dec Southwell – 12.2f
- 5 Dec Newcastle – 9.2f
- 20 Nov Lingfield – 9.5f
- 8 Nov Wolverhampton – 11.7f
- 4 June Curragh – 8.2f
Eighth in a hot novice won by Sahara King when tried over a mile at Wolverhampton. Dropped back to 7f at Lingfield—too sharp for his stamina profile—he still finished second and caught the stewards’ attention.
The two mile runs show a middle-distance horse in the making. Stride data from Southwell and Wolverhampton point to effectiveness around 12 furlongs as a 3-year-old.
Handicapped at Inadequate Trips
The latest Southwell win came easily off a mark of 81. He’ll be raised, but he’s been handicapped on 7f-1m form—trips his stride pattern suggests are insufficient tests of stamina.
Expect further improvement once he steps up and races aerobically at middle distances. A break from the all-weather seems likely. Return for a Flat turf campaign where opportunities expand.
Lord Mayor
3yo Predicted Optimal Distance: 12.5f
Trainer: Andrew Balding
Last Run: 17 Dec Lingfield – 1m 1y (3rd)
Three runs, all over an inadequate mile.
Predicted Optimal Distance (by race):
- 17 Dec Lingfield – 12.5f
- 2 Dec Lingfield – 13.1f
- 19 Nov Kempton – 10.1f
Progressive Over Insufficient Trips
Typically for the Balding stable, Lord Mayor improved with racecourse experience—twelfth on debut, ninth second time out, third most recently.
Stride biomechanics from each run point to middle-distance effectiveness. The consistency across three races—all predicting 10+ furlongs optimal—confirms a stamina profile being tested at the wrong distance.
The stable takes time with their horses. Lord Mayor has already followed the pattern—steady improvement with racing experience.
Well Treated on Mile Form
Expect progress once stepped up to 12 furlongs. The stride data supports it.
Handicapped over a mile, assigned a mark of just 64. He’ll rate higher once his stamina is tested at middle distances.
The mark creates opportunity. A candidate for 12-furlong handicaps on turf during the 2026 Flat season.
Objector
3yo Predicted Optimal Distance: 12.8f
Trainer: George Scott
Last Run: 27 Dec Wolverhampton – 1m (debut)
Objector’s pedigree screams speed. His stride profile says stamina.
Predicted Optimal Distance (by race):
- 27 Dec Wolverhampton – 12.8f
Objector’s pedigree screams speed. Dosage Index of 2.00 points heavily toward sprint/mile effectiveness—speed points dominating, no solid or professional points indicating stamina. Sire Dark Angel produced elite sprinters Battaash and Harry Angel, plus miler Charyn. Dam The Hermitage won at 5 furlongs, placed at 7 furlongs. Nine siblings have raced; none successful beyond a mile.
Everything from breeding and dosage analysis points to Objector being best at a maximum of 1 mile.
When Pedigree Misleads
Stride profile tells a different story. The Wolverhampton debut ran efficiently—strong early and mid-sectionals stretched the field, creating a thorough test at the distance. Objector’s stride mechanics under these conditions predict optimal effectiveness at 12.8 furlongs as a 3-year-old.
This is biomechanics overriding bloodline expectations.
Limited racecourse evidence—just one run—but the stride profile from an efficiently run race provides confidence. Despite sprint breeding, Objector strides like a middle-distance horse.
A candidate for 12-furlong races once connections step him up beyond a mile. Let others doubt his stamina based on breeding—that’s where the value sits.
Four horses racing at the wrong distance. Stride analysis identifies the patterns before form proves them on track. Before the market adjusts.
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