Epsom Oaks 2026: The favourites stride like milers, not stayers.
The Epsom Oaks, run over 12 furlongs on June 5th 2026, is the middle distance Classic for 3-year-old fillies. Diamond Necklace and Precise head the ante-post market—both Group 1 winners as 2-year-olds over distances up to a mile. But stride profiles reveal many won’t stay 12 furlongs. Their biomechanics show who will improve at Oaks distance and who won’t—before spring trials prove it and prices move.
The predictions below derive from 2-year-old stride data—the same methodology used in our Derby 2026 predictions. Some fillies raced extensively, others just once or twice. But the biomechanical patterns are clear.
Further down the betting sit less proven fillies whose stride profiles predict genuine 12-furlong effectiveness at attractive prices. The market hasn’t adjusted yet.
The Front Two: Diamond Necklace & Precise
| Horse | 3yo Predicted Optimal Distance |
|---|---|
| Diamond Necklace | 8.8f |
| Precise | 8.6f |
Ability proven, stamina not.
Diamond Necklace – 3yo Predicted Optimal: 8.8f
Diamond Necklace heads the market. High-class filly over a mile as a 2-year-old, winning the Group 1 Prix Marcel Boussac. Does she mature into a middle-distance 3-year-old?
Her stride profile suggests not.
Predicted Optimal Distance (by race):
- 5 Oct Longchamp – No prediction
- 13 Sept Leopardstown – 8.8f
- 9 Aug Curragh – 8.3f
She’s untested beyond a mile and her biomechanics don’t suggest stamina development. More likely effective between 8-10 furlongs as a 3-year-old.
Aidan O’Brien has other fillies in the yard showing genuine 12-furlong stride profiles. They could emerge as stronger Oaks contenders through the spring trials. At current prices, Diamond Necklace makes no appeal.
Precise – 3yo Predicted Optimal: 8.6f
Second favourite. Five runs as a 2-year-old—plenty of evidence.
Predicted Optimal Distance (by race):
- 10 Oct Newmarket – 8.6f
- 14 Sept Curragh – 8.8f
- 24 Aug Goodwood – 7.8f
- 14 Aug Cork – 7.4f
- 9 July Fairyhouse – 6.8f
Precise is likeable. She’s talented—winner of the Group 1 Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket. But she doesn’t stride like a 12-furlong filly.
The market sees a mile winner and assumes middle-distance development. Her stride profile says she’s a miler, possibly stretching to 10 furlongs maximum. She’s 7/2 favourite for the 1000 Guineas—that’s her race.
Crossing off the front two changes the value proposition entirely.
Genuine Stayers: Will Handle Oaks Distance
A small, select group predict optimal distances at or beyond the Oaks trip.
Stride predictions from 2-year-old data aren’t yet incorporated into ante-post markets—but they will be in the coming years. For now, they create an edge.
| Horse | 3yo Predicted Optimal Distance |
|---|---|
| My Ophelia | 13.2f |
| Abashiri | 12.5f |
| Iceni Queen | 11.9f |
| Camelot Queen | 11.8f |
| Enchanted Queen | 11.7f |
My Ophelia – 3yo Predicted Optimal: 13.2f
Raced just once as a 2-year-old, winning a Newbury novice on heavy ground. Not the strongest race in terms of quality, but for a filly with such stamina depth in her stride profile, she showed a visually impressive turn of speed in the closing stages.
Predicted Optimal Distance (by race):
- 25 Oct Newbury – 13.2f
She’s a middle-distance filly in the making. Predicted to be effective beyond 12 furlongs. The question is class—and trainer intent.
William Haggas doesn’t typically target the Oaks. My Ophelia holds an Irish Oaks entry, which could signal confidence in her class. Equally, Haggas typically takes a slow-burn route with his horses. Not a betting opportunity yet—better to wait and see if they target a spring Oaks trial.
After Abashiri, My Ophelia is the most interesting stayer on stride predictions—but trainer intent makes her wait-and-see for now.
Abashiri – 3yo Predicted Optimal: 12.5f
Another with just a single run to date, but Abashiri strides like a classic 12-furlong horse. Plenty of stamina in her profile. She’ll be much better once stepped up in distance.
Predicted Optimal Distance (by race):
- 5 Nov Kempton – 12.5f
Impressive winning her Kempton maiden over a mile in November. Like My Ophelia, she has to prove her class. It’s a big gap from Kempton maiden to Epsom Oaks.
But there’s encouragement in the family. Abashiri’s full sister English Rose raced six times, peaking with a Group 2 win at Meydan.
Currently 25/1 in the ante-post betting. That’s generous, especially with the current favourites unlikely stayers. Abashiri is the early selection.
Iceni Queen – 3yo Predicted Optimal: 11.9f
Won a Nottingham maiden by 7 lengths on her second start. Notably trained by John Gosden, who after O’Brien has the best recent Oaks record—four winners in recent years.
Predicted Optimal Distance (by race):
- 15 Oct Nottingham – 11.9f
- 2 Oct Chelmsford – 12.3f (low confidence race)
Iceni Queen isn’t quoted in the Oaks market yet—despite better credentials than many who are priced. A middle-distance filly in the making. One to watch in the spring.
Camelot Queen – 3yo Predicted Optimal: 11.8f
Predicted Optimal Distance (by race):
- 18 Oct Leopardstown – 11.8f
Raced once. Beautifully bred but beaten 19 lengths in a maiden. Strides like a 12-furlong filly but needs significant racecourse improvement before Group 1 consideration.
Enchanted Queen – 3yo Predicted Optimal: 11.7f
Predicted Optimal Distance (by race):
- 2 Oct Nottingham – 11.7f
- 12 Sept Sandown – 11.4f
- 22 Aug Newmarket – 7.9f
Three runs as a 2-year-old. Strides like a 12-furlong filly but, like Camelot Queen, needs substantial form improvement before entering Oaks contention.
Marginal Stayers: 10.0f-11.4f
Fillies predicting just short of the Oaks distance. Borderline cases.
| Horse | 3yo Predicted Optimal Distance |
|---|---|
| Cosmetic | 11.0f |
| Classiest | 10.9f |
| Ice Dancer | 10.6f |
| Queen Of Hawaii | 10.4f |
| El Vamos | 10.4f |
| Symbol Of Majesty | 10.3f |
| Amelia Earhart | 10.2f |
| Aylin | 10.1f |
| Bloom | 10.1f |
| Darkwing | 10.1f |
| Legacy Link | 10.0f |
| Romantic Symphony | 10.0f |
| Moments Of Joy | 10.0f |
Classiest – 3yo Predicted Optimal: 10.9f
Predicted Optimal Distance (by race):
- 27 Oct Galway – 10.9f
Once raced. Impressive maiden winner but limited evidence. At 10.9f prediction, she’s borderline for the Oaks trip. One to reassess after spring trials.
Bloom – 3yo Predicted Optimal: 10.1f
Predicted Optimal Distance (by race):
- 30 Sept Cork – 10.5f
- 21 Aug Leopardstown – 9.1f
Another lightly-raced maiden winner from O’Brien’s stable. The 10.5f prediction sits short of Oaks distance, but her low minimum stride frequency suggests stamina potential. Worth monitoring as she matures—could develop into a contender.
Symbol Of Majesty – 3yo Predicted Optimal: 10.3f
Predicted Optimal Distance (by race):
- 4 Dec Chelmsford – 10.3f
One run. Won a Chelmsford novice, overcoming a slow start to win nicely. Another from Gosden’s stable.
Sits on the low side for the Oaks distance at 10.3f predicted optimal. Promising but more evidence required. One to note on her next run for class and stamina clues.
Romantic Symphony – 3yo Predicted Optimal: 10.0f
Predicted Optimal Distance (by race):
- 20 Sept Newmarket – 10.0f
Won her sole start for Charlie Appleby’s yard. Promising filly but the 10.0f prediction sits short of the Oaks trip. More evidence required to see if stamina develops beyond that mark.
Amelia Earhart, Aylin & Legacy Link
A trio who raced multiple times as 2-year-olds. All three predict optimal distances around 10 furlongs—short of the Oaks trip. All three sit between 25/1 and 33/1 in current ante-post markets.
Amelia Earhart – 3yo Predicted Optimal: 10.2f
- 18 Oct Leopardstown – 10.2f
- 28 Sept Curragh – 8.5f
- 12 Sept Doncaster – 8.8f
Aylin – 3yo Predicted Optimal: 10.1f
- 5 Oct Longchamp – No prediction
- 11 Sept Doncaster – 10.1f
- 24 Aug Goodwood – 8.6f
- 31 July Goodwood – 8.7f
- 11 July York – 6.8f
Legacy Link – 3yo Predicted Optimal: 10.0f
- 10 Oct Newmarket – 8.0f
- 5 Sept Haydock – 10.0f
- 8 Aug Newmarket – 9.2f
Sufficient evidence from 2-year-old form to have fair confidence in these predictions. All three likely to prove most effective short of 12 furlongs.
Horses at Wrong Trip: Non Stayers
Fillies whose stride profiles suggest they won’t be effective at 12 furlongs.
| Horse | 3yo Predicted Optimal Distance |
|---|---|
| Forever True | 9.9f |
| Cape Primrose | 9.6f |
| Cameo | 9.6f |
| Sacred Ground | 9.5f |
| Ottoman Empress | 9.1f |
| Musical Chimes | 9.1f |
| Sugar Island | 9.0f |
| Purely | 8.9f |
| Act Of Kindness | 8.9f |
| Beautify | 8.9f |
| Venetian Lace | 8.9f |
| Diamond Necklace | 8.8f |
| Precise | 8.6f |
| Together Now | 8.3f |
| Blue Nazare | 8.0f |
This group includes the current favourite and second favourite—Diamond Necklace (8.8f) and Precise (8.6f), already covered in detail above.
The remainder predict optimal distances between 8-10 furlongs, suggesting effectiveness at shorter trips rather than the Oaks’ 12-furlong test. None are viable Oaks contenders based on stride analysis.
Epsom Oaks 2026: The Early Edge
The current market misprices distance suitability. Diamond Necklace and Precise—the top two favourites—stride like Guineas fillies, not Oaks fillies. They won’t be most effective at 12 furlongs.
Abashiri at 25/1 is the early selection. She strides like a classic 12-furlong horse with genuine stamina depth. The gap from Kempton maiden to Epsom Oaks is significant, but the price accounts for that uncertainty.
Stride analysis isn’t yet factored into ante-post markets—creating value before the market catches on and prices move.
A final Oaks preview will follow in late May once the Musidora, Cheshire Oaks, and the key Oaks Trial are complete. By then we’ll know whether these assessments held up, how stride profiles evolved with maturity, and how the market adjusted.
Related Articles:
Discover why some horses develop stamina while others don’t in our 7-furlong breakpoint analysis.
Read our Epsom Derby 2026 predictions for stride analysis of the colts’ Classic.
Learn more about the stride biomechanics methodology behind these predictions.
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