Constitution River (Aidan O’Brien) — Predicted Optimal 9.9f
| Run | Course | Predicted Distance |
|---|---|---|
| 07 May 26 | Chester | 9.9f |
| 23 Aug 25 | Curragh | 8.3f |
| 28 Jul 25 | Galway | 8.4f |
| 11 Jul 25 | Newmarket | 7.7f* |
* Moderate pace confidence
The Derby conversation has consumed the week. English or French? Will he stay twelve furlongs? The stride data has a more specific view.
As a juvenile, three runs pointed consistently at a horse whose movement suits trips around a mile — 7.7f, 8.4f and 8.3f across different tracks and conditions. Chester moved that picture on. The Dee Stakes was run at a good pace and he returned a predicted optimal of 9.9f — a meaningful step forward from his 2yo profile. Ten furlongs is now within his optimal range.
Will he stay twelve furlongs? Yes. Will twelve furlongs be where he finds his absolute best? The model puts the efficiency peak around ten furlongs. The distinction matters: the model identifies an optimal, not a ceiling.
On the clock, the Dee Stakes performance rates marginally superior to what Benvenuto Cellini produced at Chester. It frames the question the market has to answer — whether Constitution River’s best at twelve furlongs is good enough, and whether connections choose the Epsom Derby at 12f or the Prix du Jockey Club at 10.5f for his next run. For me, the 9.9f prediction is the signal. Ability can overcome an imperfect trip, of course — and whether connections choose Epsom or Chantilly, Constitution River belongs at the centre of the Derby conversation.
This edition: Constitution River | Mohaaraj | Protection Act | So Regal | Ray Mon Dough | Central Command
Mohaaraj (Richard Hughes) — Predicted Optimal 10.2f
| Run | Course | Predicted Distance |
|---|---|---|
| 09 May 26 | Haydock | 10.2f |
| 11 Feb 26 | Kempton | 9.7f |
| 08 Nov 25 | Wolverhampton | 12.7f* |
* Moderate pace confidence
Mohaaraj has featured in these pages before. The Wolverhampton debut reading carried a pace caveat and the 12.7f figure deserves caution. What followed told a cleaner story.
The Kempton win returned 9.7f. That number has now been confirmed at Haydock — a good pace, a thorough test, a high confidence read of 10.2f. Two clean runs pointing to the same place.
That he was quick enough to win over a mile at Haydock is a measure of his ability relative to his mark. He strides like a horse who will produce better performances once stepped up to ten furlongs.
Protection Act (George Boughey) — Predicted Optimal 9f+
| Run | Course | Predicted Distance |
|---|---|---|
| 01 May 26 | Goodwood | 9.7f* |
| 03 Jul 25 | Haydock | 9.3f |
* Moderate pace confidence
Impressive on debut at Haydock as a two-year-old in a good time — travelled notably strongly, won nicely. Similar at Goodwood in a better race: four runners, settled at the back, finished strongly to pick the field off.
Seven furlongs on debut, eight furlongs at Goodwood. Predictions from both runs suggest Protection Act will be most effective stepped up to nine furlongs and beyond. The Goodwood read carries a moderate pace confidence warning but points the same way.
So Regal (John & Thady Gosden) — Predicted Optimal 10.5f
| Run | Course | Predicted Distance |
|---|---|---|
| 01 May 26 | Ascot | 10.5f |
| 15 Apr 26 | Newmarket | 9.6f** |
| 27 Nov 25 | Chelmsford | 8.5f* |
* Moderate pace confidence
** Low pace confidence
Three runs, a clear progression. The Chelmsford and Newmarket reads carry confidence warnings and should be treated as directional. The Ascot win over a mile is the clean read — high confidence, 10.5f.
She strides like a filly who will be most effective at or just over ten furlongs. The Ascot run confirms it. The profile is that of a filly with the ability to compete at pattern level once stepped up in trip.
Ray Mon Dough (Oliver Cole) — Predicted Optimal 6.1f
| Run | Course | Predicted Distance |
|---|---|---|
| 30 Apr 26 | Kempton | 8.6f* |
| 04 Nov 25 | Lingfield | 6.1f |
* Moderate pace confidence
A 6.1f prediction from his debut run at Lingfield — won in the time and style of a horse with Group-class speed in the making. One run, one clear signal.
What happened at Kempton was predictable. Up in trip to seven furlongs, back from a layoff, with the Oliver Cole yard running below its best. He was well supported at 5/4 and it fell apart — pulled hard in the lead, hung badly across the track and slowed in the final furlong.
The 8.6f Kempton read carries moderate confidence and is better set aside. The Lingfield signal stands. Not one to give up on if dropped back in distance, where he is allowed to use the speed he demonstrated on debut.
Central Command (Simon & Ed Crisford) — Predicted Optimal 12.3f
| Run | Course | Predicted Distance |
|---|---|---|
| 01 May 26 | Newcastle | 12.3f |
| 17 Dec 25 | Kempton | 8.6f** |
| 01 Dec 25 | Kempton | 9.3f** |
| 05 Nov 25 | Kempton | 8.3f* |
* Moderate pace confidence
** Low pace confidence
Three quick runs in pace-compromised Kempton maidens — all over too short a distance, all carrying confidence warnings. Those three runs earned an opening handicap mark of 64.
Newcastle on handicap debut was the first clean read. A Class 6 over ten furlongs, truly run, high confidence: 12.3f. He won easily — and a revised mark of 71 still leaves significant upside once he gets to tackle twelve furlongs and beyond.
Horses To Watch
Constitution River is the week’s headline — the stride data rates his Chester performance highly and puts his optimal at ten furlongs. The question is whether connections target Epsom or the Prix du Jockey Club, and whether his best at twelve furlongs is good enough for the former.
Ray Mon Dough showed Group-class speed on debut at Lingfield and the Kempton trip experiment is best set aside — he remains of significant interest back at six furlongs. Mohaaraj has confirmed 10.2f from a high confidence Haydock read and strides like a horse with better performances ahead at that trip.