STRIDE WATCH
Finding value before the market does.
Stride Watch highlights horses whose biomechanics reveal they’re racing at the wrong distance. Using predictive models, we identify which horses will improve significantly once stepped up or dropped back to suit their movement profile—before form proves it and prices adjust.
This edition: The Lost King | Level Look | Asia Force | Codiak | Chamas | Hardstyle
The Lost King
4yo Predicted Optimal Distance: 9.9f
Trainer: Andrew Balding
Last Run: 7 Jan 2026 Kempton – 7f (won)
The Lost King returned from a 202-day absence. Last seen finishing 12th in the Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot. Before that, 3rd in a strongly-run Esher Cup over a mile where stride analysis predicted 10.3f optimal.
Kempton’s return race was 7 furlongs—a drop in trip unlikely to suit. The Lost King handled it anyway, quickening past the entire field in the final furlong and a half when race speed was at its fastest. Predicted optimal from that race: 9.9f.
Credit where it’s due. He had a lot against him at Kempton—the trip, the absence, the race setup—and still won.
What the stride data shows: A mile is clearly no problem. Analysis across six career runs consistently points to 10f as optimal. The pattern is clear—at 7 furlongs, this is a horse being campaigned short of his best trip.
Career predictions by race:
- 7 Jan 26 Kempton: 9.9f
- 19 June 25 Ascot: 8.0f
- 23 April 25 Sandown: 10.3f
- 7 Sept 24 Haydock: 10.2f
- 23 Aug 24 Newmarket: 8.6f
- 7 Aug 24 Kempton: 9.6f
Four of six runs predict 9.6f or further. The consistency is notable.
Winning off a handicap mark of 90 here, The Lost King can expect a revision to somewhere in the mid-nineties. With the lightly raced profile and the step-up in distance opportunities, I think that’s a handicap mark he’s very capable of winning from.
Lightly raced for a 4-year-old—just six career starts. Plenty of time to make up lost ground. Expect better when connections step him back up in trip. A mile and then mile and a quarter races on turf this summer look obvious targets. John Smith’s Cup territory.
Level Look
3yo Predicted Optimal Distance: 12.2f
Trainer: Andrew Balding
Last Run: 9 Jan 2026 Newcastle – 1m 2f 42y (won)
Classic Andrew Balding approach. Improve the horse through racecourse education, step them up in trip gradually.
Level Look first caught attention at Lingfield over a mile—sent off 200/1, ran 4th, a marked improvement on debut. Analysis across all three career runs points to stamina. High confidence in the predictions—consistent pattern from the start.
Career predictions by race:
- 9 Jan 26 Newcastle: 12.2f
- 22 Dec 25 Lingfield: 12.0f
- 1 Dec 25 Kempton: 11.7f
Three runs, three predictions clustering around 12 furlongs. Level Look is a stayer.
Newcastle saw him stepped up to 10f. Did he show his hand a little early for handicap purposes? Possibly yes. But with a stamina-focused stride profile and Balding’s patient approach, there’s more to come.
The stride signature points to extreme stamina capacity. Horses with this profile typically excel beyond 12 furlongs. Where next? Handicaps over 10-12f through the spring, building toward the 14f 3-year-old handicaps that populate the summer programme. The 12-furlong 3yo handicap won last year by the progressive Merchant at York’s Dante meeting looks a natural target.
Three runs, improving each time, and still racing below optimal distance. Watch closely.
Asia Force
3yo Predicted Optimal Distance: 12.2f
Trainer: Karl Burke
Last Run: 9 Jan 2026 Newcastle – 1m 2f 42y (2nd)
Just four runners, but Asia Force was sent off 8/13 starting price on debut. That pricing says something about how the stable views this horse’s potential.
Level Look proved stronger on the day, but with racecourse education, Asia Force could prove the better long-term prospect.
Single-run data, but the race was a true test at the trip. The predicted optimal of 12.2f carries confidence. Asia Force will put up stronger performances once his stamina is properly tested.
Pedigree backs biomechanics. First foal of Frankel out of Scentasia—herself a dual Listed winner for John Gosden over a mile and 10 furlongs. Asia Force is bred to be decent.
Interesting prospect. One who will improve significantly stepped up in distance.
Codiak
4yo Predicted Optimal Distance: 15.9f
Trainer: Edward Bethell
Last Run: 13 Jan 2026 Southwell – 1m 4f 14y (won)
From debut midway through his 3-year-old season, Codiak has shown consistent stamina signatures in his stride.
Career predictions by race:
- 13 Jan 26 Southwell: 15.9f
- 01 Dec 25 Wolverhampton: 13.1f
- 04 Nov 25 Redcar: 13.6f
- 02 Sept 25 Southwell: 14.0f
- 02 Aug 25 Hamilton: 11.8f
- 24 July 25 Doncaster: 12.2f
Six runs, every prediction pointing beyond 12 furlongs. The pattern is unambiguous—Codiak is a staying horse being campaigned short of optimal.
His first handicap start at Southwell over 12 furlongs resulted in a narrow win. Competitive off an official rating of 82, he’ll be raised a few pounds for the head victory—but that keeps winning well within range.
Here’s what matters: Codiak will be significantly better suited with a proper stamina test. The Southwell win predicts an optimal distance of 15.9f. He’s racing 4 furlongs short of his best trip.
Lightly raced for a 4-year-old—just six career starts. Plenty of development still ahead. Watch for him in handicaps when connections step him up beyond 12 furlongs. The improvement is coming.
Chamas
3yo Predicted Optimal Distance: 6.7f
Trainer: Ralph Beckett
Last Run: 14 Jan 26 Lingfield – 7f 1y (won)
The Racing Post’s race commentary read: “Slowly into stride, in rear, headway over 2f out, pushed along over 1f out, pressed leaders inside final 110yds, led post, just did enough.”
Traditional form analysis might see this differently. Seven-furlong debut, slow start, strong late rally to lead on the line—looks like a filly who’ll appreciate a step up in trip, right?
Wrong.
Chamas has a classic sprint signature. Racing on the 7-furlong breakpoint, Chamas’s stride reveals 6.7f optimal. The movement pattern indicates anaerobic reliance. She’s a sprinter, not a middle-distance filly in the making.
The race was run at a pace that gave a true test at the trip. High confidence in the prediction.
What this means: Chamas will progress when the emphasis is on speed, not stamina. Watch for her over sprint distances—5-6 furlongs is where she’ll be most effective.
If connections step her up beyond 7 furlongs, caution. The stride profile says she won’t improve for it. Market might assume otherwise based on how she finished. That’s where the value gap sits.
Hardstyle
3yo Predicted Optimal Distance: 10f+
Trainer: George Boughey
Last Run: 14 Jan 26 Lingfield – 1m 1y (won)
Three runs over 5 furlongs to start his career—an inadequate trip for a horse with his stride profile. The official handicapper gave him a mark of 56.
Stepped up to a mile for his handicap debut at Wolverhampton on 30 December, Hardstyle ran 4th, beaten a length and a quarter. Mark dropped to 55.
Connections will be pleased with that assessment. The handicapper was probably pleased too—looked like he got the mark about right when Hardstyle ran 4th on his first handicap start.
Back at a mile today at Lingfield, Hardstyle raced prominently, forcing a solid pace. Visually powerful through the final stages, winning and recording a predicted optimal of 10.0f.
Career predictions by race:
- 14 Jan 26 Lingfield: 10.0f
- 30 Dec 25 Wolverhampton: 11.4f
- 07 Dec 25 Lingfield: 6.4f
- 29 Nov 25 Wolverhampton: 6.9f
- 20 Nov 25 Southwell: 6.5f
Notice the pattern. First three runs over 5 furlongs predict 6.4-6.9f—severe sprint trips forcing stride adjustments. Horses with deep stamina profiles can’t express their natural biomechanics at extreme sprint distances. They adapt to generate speed, but it’s not their makeup.
Step them up to a mile, and the true signature emerges. Two runs at a mile: 10.0f and 11.4f predicted optimal.
Here’s the opportunity: Even at a mile, Hardstyle is racing short of his best trip. There’s disparity between the two mile predictions—pace analysis suggests both races were truly run, so the variation warrants attention. But the direction is clear: this horse wants 10 furlongs minimum.
Racing off 55 after being campaigned at the wrong distance. The handicap mark doesn’t reflect what he’ll do when the emphasis is on stamina. Watch for him when connections step up to 10 furlongs. The improvement is built in.
Six horses identified racing at wrong distances. Six opportunities to find value in the market.
Watch these horses when connections place them at their optimal trips. The improvement is already built in.